According to a research report, the PTA market faces increasingly prominent supply-demand contradictions, with product profit margins continuously compressed. By August 2025, the price spread has narrowed to within 200 yuan/ton, leaving most enterprises in loss-making positions and creating strong demand for industry profitability improvement. Recently, major PTA enterprises have begun consultations on coordinated industry production cuts, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure through enhanced industry collaboration. Against the backdrop of domestic "anti-internal competition" policy implementation, potential industry coordination, and accelerated technological iteration driving out obsolete capacity, the PTA industry structure is expected to improve. Combined with the gradual stabilization and recovery of domestic and international textile and apparel demand, PTA is poised to enter a new prosperity cycle.

**PTA Industry Fundamentals Near Bottom, Urgent Need for Profitability Improvement**

In recent years, China's PTA capacity has expanded rapidly. According to Baiinfo, effective PTA capacity has grown from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.28 million tons in 2024, representing a CAGR of 12.5%; by August 2025, it has further climbed to 91.35 million tons. With rapid capacity expansion on the supply side, industry operating rates have shown a clear downward trend, reaching 78% in August 2025, down 12 percentage points from 90% in 2019, placing it in the historical low range. Meanwhile, market supply-demand contradictions have become increasingly prominent, with product profit margins continuously compressed. The price spread narrowed to within 200 yuan/ton in August 2025, leaving most enterprises in loss-making positions and creating strong demand for industry profitability improvement.

**Highly Concentrated Industry Structure, Leading Companies Coordinating Production Cuts**

According to Baiinfo and company announcements, China's PTA capacity is primarily controlled by six companies: Hengli Petrochemical (16.6 million tons), Tongkun Group (10.2 million tons), Xinfengming Group (7.7 million tons), Yisheng (a joint venture between Hengyi Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, 22 million tons), Oriental Petrochemical (6.5 million tons), and Sanfangxiang Group (5.6 million tons). The industry CR6 is approximately 75%, indicating high concentration and laying the foundation for good industry self-discipline mechanisms to avoid disorderly competition. Recently, major PTA enterprises have begun consultations on coordinated industry production cuts, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure through enhanced industry collaboration.

**Outstanding Late-Mover Advantages in Equipment, Small-Scale Obsolete Capacity Under Pressure**

Domestic PTA technology has undergone four generations of iteration, primarily characterized by equipment scaling up. After scaling up, PTA ton-capacity investment costs, comprehensive energy utilization efficiency, raw material consumption, and equipment depreciation and maintenance costs have all improved significantly, giving PTA equipment significant late-mover advantages. According to SCI99, the average processing costs for first through fourth-generation technologies are 840, 650, 400, and 275 yuan/ton respectively, showing significant cost differences between generations. New low-cost facilities are expected to gradually push small-scale, high-cost obsolete capacity out of the market based on their economic advantages. According to Longzhong Information statistics, current domestic P7 and below technology capacity accounts for approximately 40%, indicating significant optimization potential in PTA capacity structure. Additionally, this round of technological upgrades has continuously shifted China's domestic PTA cost curve leftward, further strengthening domestic PTA's global competitiveness. Against the backdrop of potential US restocking demand, domestic polyester and raw material exports are expected to maintain growth.

**Capacity Expansion Nearing End, Expected to Begin Prosperity Cycle**

According to Baiinfo, three new PTA facilities were planned for 2025 in China, of which Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 million tons and Sanfangxiang Group's 3.2 million tons have been commissioned in June and August respectively, leaving only Xinfengming Group's 3 million ton facility uncommissioned, expected to be completed and operational in October. Looking ahead, PTA commissioning pace will slow significantly. According to Mysteel, there are no clear new capacity plans for 2026, with 2 million and 6 million tons planned for 2027 and 2028 respectively, resulting in a capacity CAGR of only 2.8% over the next three years. Against the backdrop of domestic "anti-internal competition" policy implementation, potential industry coordination, and accelerated technological iteration driving out obsolete capacity, the PTA industry structure is expected to improve. Combined with the gradual stabilization and recovery of domestic and international textile and apparel demand, PTA is poised to enter a new prosperity cycle.

**Investment Recommendations**

Recommended stocks include Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ), Tongkun Group (601233.SH), Xinfengming Group (603225.SH), Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Oriental Petrochemical (000301.SZ), and Sanfangxiang Group (600370.SH).

**Risk Warnings**

Industry coordination progress falling short of expectations, significant raw material price volatility, downstream demand below expectations, capacity commissioning exceeding expectations, intensified industry competition risks, and policy uncertainty risks.