Key Market Highlights Today Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data has increased market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, injecting momentum into global equities as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches. While Americans prepare turkeys or head to airports, the UK will scrutinize the details of its controversial budget—Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled the plan today.
Market Snapshot
According to three sources, the U.S.-backed "28-point Ukraine ceasefire proposal" released last week drew from a document Russia submitted to the Trump administration in October. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves may announce tens of billions in new taxes in Wednesday’s budget—a critical test of her credibility as she balances bond investor confidence with lawmakers’ demands for higher welfare spending. How is the AI chip race impacting major tech stocks? What are the key details of the UK’s Autumn Budget? Which dynamics are influencing oil prices and geopolitics? How are weak U.S. economic figures shaping Fed rate expectations? Despite U.S. tech firms still holding near-decade-high weightings in the S&P 500 by market cap, their earnings share continues to decline—raising concerns about a growing disconnect between stock prices and underlying profit trends. Reuters energy columnist Ron Bousso notes that after years of turbulence, Europe’s gas market has stabilized. The continent’s shift to LNG imports to replace Russian supply is unlikely to change, even if a Trump-brokered Ukraine peace deal materializes. In his latest column for Reuters, Mike Peacock argues that Reeves, facing a make-or-break budget, should leverage Labour’s high approval ratings as an advantage.
Grateful for Bad News U.S. stocks rallied for a third day on Tuesday despite weaker retail sales and falling consumer confidence. September retail sales rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% forecast, while August’s figure was revised up to 0.6%. The delayed data—due to the 43-day government shutdown—and a drop in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index to 88.7 (a four-month low) reinforced negative sentiment. The takeaway: Soft retail figures, sagging confidence, a recent unemployment uptick to 4.4%, and dovish Fed comments appear to set the stage for a December rate cut. Fed funds futures now price in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on December 10, up from 50% last week.
In the UK, Chancellor Reeves delivered the much-anticipated Autumn Budget, including new tax measures aimed at upholding Labour’s fiscal rules and maintaining market confidence. The pound held steady after a four-day rally ahead of the announcement. In Japan, the yen initially strengthened on reports that the Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a potential rate hike as early as next month, though gains later moderated. Oil prices traded narrowly Wednesday after Brent and WTI futures both fell 89 cents Tuesday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told European leaders he’s open to advancing a U.S.-backed ceasefire framework, with only minor disagreements remaining. Long-term, expected oversupply may cap oil gains—and a finalized deal could push prices lower.
Alphabet shares rose about 1% after The Information reported Meta is in talks to use Google’s AI chips starting in 2027 and lease them via Google Cloud next year. Meanwhile, AI chip leader Nvidia fell over 2% to a two-month low, signaling intensifying competition among tech giants that had rallied together on the AI boom.
Key Events to Watch UK Autumn Budget 2025 release U.S. durable goods orders data