Abstract

Gartner will report first‑quarter 2026 results on May 5, 2026 Pre-Market; investors are focused on revenue near 1.52 billion US dollars and EPS around 2.91 amid cautious sentiment driven by decelerating contract metrics and recent rating downgrades.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the first quarter of 2026 points to revenue of about 1.52 billion US dollars, down 1.00% year over year, EBIT of roughly 290.62 million (up 0.63% year over year), and adjusted EPS near 2.91 (up 7.24% year over year); published margin forecasts are not available. The core Research franchise is expected to carry the quarter’s mix, with investors watching contract value trajectory and pricing resilience; Conferences and Consulting act as incremental swing factors. Within the portfolio, Conferences has the clearest near-term cyclical lever, contributing 286.20 million US dollars in the prior quarter; year-over-year comparisons for this segment were not disclosed, but execution on event attendance and pricing will be the watchpoints.

Last Quarter Review

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Gartner delivered revenue of 1.75 billion US dollars (up 2.21% year over year), a gross profit margin of 67.33%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 242.00 million US dollars with a 13.82% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS of 3.94 (down 27.71% year over year). A notable financial highlight was EPS outperforming the prior consensus estimate by 0.43, aided by solid operating discipline despite softer top-line momentum. By business line, Research generated 1.28 billion US dollars, representing 73.19% of company revenue; while segment-specific year-over-year growth was not disclosed, the overall company revenue increased 2.21% year over year, underscoring stability in the mix.

Current Quarter Outlook

Research: contract value tone and retention will anchor near-term EPS delivery

The current quarter’s narrative is anchored in the Research unit’s ability to sustain contract value and pricing amid a mixed demand environment. Given Research accounted for 1.28 billion US dollars and 73.19% of last quarter’s revenue, modest swings here can drive disproportionate effects on both revenue and EPS. Into the first quarter, consensus assumes Research continues to represent the majority of the mix while aggregate revenue slips 1.00% year over year, implying subdued new business additions and a heavier reliance on renewals and seat expansion within existing customers. The key operating needle-movers are retention rates, new seat growth in enterprise cohorts, and realized list-price uplift; investors will also parse comments on sales-cycle length and deal approval layers as indirect signals for the remainder of 2026. Management’s ability to hold gross margin territory near the prior quarter’s 67.33% baseline through disciplined delivery and content leverage is important for protecting earnings power when top-line growth is muted. From a modeling perspective, even a small variation in contract value exit rate for the quarter could have a magnified impact on the full-year run-rate implied by guidance, and therefore on valuation sensitivity around the results day. The improved EPS forecast year over year for the quarter (+7.24%) suggests consensus expects operating efficiency and share count dynamics to offset soft revenue, but that assumption requires Research to execute with limited slippage in renewals or discounting.

Conferences: volume and yield are poised to be the near-term growth lever

Conferences contributed 286.20 million US dollars in the prior quarter, making it a meaningful lever for sequential volatility in revenue and margins. For this quarter, investors are focused on attendance levels, sponsor demand, and realized pricing; together, these variables determine the segment’s revenue productivity and incremental margin given the semi-fixed cost structure of event logistics. While explicit year-over-year growth for Conferences in the last quarter was not disclosed, sentiment entering the print reflects cautious optimism that normalized event calendars, targeted content tracks, and disciplined pricing can deliver incremental growth even as corporate budgets remain selective. The segment’s ability to maintain high-value sponsorship inventory and attract decision-maker audiences is central to defending yield; any shortfalls would pressure both revenue and margins due to limited scope for immediate cost flexing around committed venue and production expenses. Operationally, better load factors on flagship events and efficient re-use of content programming can enhance contribution margin, providing earnings ballast if Research growth is subdued. Conversely, if sponsor demand proves softer than anticipated or attendance mix shifts toward lower-ticket cohorts, the segment could be a source of downside variance; therefore, booking updates and forward calendar commentary will be heavily scrutinized for signals into the second and third quarters.

Consulting: utilization and backlog discipline remain essential to protect profitability

Consulting delivered 133.60 million US dollars last quarter and serves as an execution-focused complement to Research and Conferences, translating insights into project outcomes. The short-cycle nature of many projects means utilization and price realization are the primary drivers of both growth and margin in this unit; in the absence of disclosed year-over-year growth rates by segment, investors will gauge health through commentary on book-to-bill and backlog visibility. With aggregate company revenue expected to decline 1.00% year over year this quarter, Consulting’s role as a stabilizer depends on maintaining efficient staffing, avoiding bench inflation, and ensuring tight engagement scoping to protect gross margin. On the revenue side, a tilt toward higher-complexity projects can support yield, but carries execution risk if client demand slows or elongates. If Research renewals show pressure, Consulting may also face spillover effects as clients defer adjacencies; management’s commentary on cross-sell from Research into Consulting will therefore provide a directional read on pipeline durability. Ultimately, consistent utilization above internal thresholds and disciplined mix management can prevent Consulting from becoming a margin drag in a slower top-line environment.

Stock price drivers this quarter: revenue mix, margins, and guidance tone

The most consequential swing factors for the share price around this print are likely to be the revenue mix across Research, Conferences, and Consulting, quarterly margin resilience relative to the prior quarter’s 67.33% gross margin and 13.82% net margin, and, critically, the guidance tone for contract value and revenue growth into the mid-year period. The Street’s EPS expectation of 2.91 implies year-over-year expansion despite a revenue decline, so any shortfall on margins or an uptick in opex intensity—particularly in selling, content production, or event execution—could produce negative earnings leverage. Investors will also focus on whether management reiterates or refines full-year revenue and EBIT frameworks; because the forecast embeds EBIT of approximately 290.62 million US dollars, modest deviations in revenue conversion or expense cadence can meaningfully alter the implied margin trajectory for the balance of the year. Color on renewal trends, new logo momentum, and early-quarter bookings will be parsed for signals about second-quarter seasonality and the ability to accelerate into the back half. Finally, commentary on capital allocation—especially pacing of repurchases—can influence per-share earnings resilience if growth remains modest.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent published views skews cautious-to-bearish, with no material bullish initiations and a cluster of downgrades or neutral stances; counting ratings and direction of target revisions, the majority view is negative. Goldman Sachs moved to Neutral from Buy with a revised price target of 171 US dollars on April 27, 2026, citing a more balanced risk-reward as contract metrics soften. UBS maintained a Neutral stance and reduced its target to 166 US dollars on March 26, 2026, emphasizing a “more balanced” near-term setup after several quarters of pressure on contract value growth. Morgan Stanley reiterated Equalweight and cut its price target to 200 US dollars on February 4, 2026, highlighting continued deceleration in contract value and a more volatile selling environment that dampens near-term acceleration prospects. Barclays kept an Equalweight rating and lowered its target to 150 US dollars on April 10, 2026, reflecting a more conservative revenue trajectory and limited visibility on reacceleration. Wells Fargo maintained a Sell with a 218 US dollars target in November 2025, adding to the cautious tone that spans the six-month window used here, while RBC’s Hold at 250 US dollars on January 15, 2026 further underscores neutrality rather than positive conviction.

Across these institutions, the shared thread is a tempered outlook for near-term growth, where incremental upside requires evidence of stabilization—and eventual improvement—in contract value trends and a clearer path to accelerating revenue. That lens aligns with the current quarter’s setup: consensus sees adjusted EPS rising 7.24% year over year despite a 1.00% decline in revenue, a profile that depends on margin resilience and cost control rather than robust top-line growth. Analysts describe the environment as more challenging for new business acquisition and seat expansion, with elongated sales cycles and higher approval thresholds tempering net adds; under those conditions, the Research unit’s renewal rates and pricing discipline carry more weight than usual. Commentary also suggests that Conferences can provide incremental support if attendance and sponsorship yield remain healthy, but its contribution is unlikely to fully offset any material softness in Research. On valuation, reduced targets reflect slower expected revenue compounding and a higher risk premium for execution on contract metrics; price target cuts from multiple banks collectively support a cautious stance rather than a constructive one.

From an earnings mechanics perspective, the 0.63% year-over-year EBIT growth expected this quarter against a 1.00% revenue decline highlights how much the investment case leans on operating leverage from previously scaled content and delivery platforms. The bearish majority emphasizes that this leverage is fragile if renewal discounting creeps up or if the cost of new logo acquisition rises. These institutions will be assessing whether the company’s expense base can be tuned quickly enough to preserve mid-teens net margins should top-line pressure persist beyond the first quarter. In their view, the inflection investors want to see is a firming of contract value exit rates and tangible evidence of new seat growth resuming, which would justify re-expansion of target multiples. Until then, the Street’s predominant stance remains cautious, and the burden of proof lies with the company to demonstrate that margin stability can be sustained and that revenue growth can re-accelerate through the mid-year period.

In sum, the majority analyst view frames the first quarter as a proof point for disciplined execution more than a growth quarter. The consensus revenue decline of 1.00% and modest EBIT expansion set a measured bar, but even that requires clean delivery on Research renewals, solid Conferences execution, and careful control of operating expenses. Should the company show credible progress on contract value trends and maintain margins near recent levels, analysts imply that downside risk could be contained; absent that, the cautious stance and lower targets are likely to persist. The market will therefore key on the company’s guidance and qualitative color on demand dynamics as decisive signals for the trajectory into the second and third quarters.