Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But no-one is immune from buying too high. For example, after five long years the Medallion Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:MFIN) share price is a whole 70% lower. That's an unpleasant experience for long term holders. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 62% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 20% in the last three months.
See our latest analysis for Medallion Financial
Medallion Financial wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
Over five years, Medallion Financial grew its revenue at 40% per year. That's better than most loss-making companies. In contrast, the share price is has averaged a loss of 11% per year - that's quite disappointing. It's safe to say investor expectations are more grounded now. If you think the company can keep up its revenue growth, you'd have to consider the possibility that there's an opportunity here.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
If you are thinking of buying or selling Medallion Financial stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
Investors should note that there's a difference between Medallion Financial's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Medallion Financial's TSR of was a loss of 66% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
Investors in Medallion Financial had a tough year, with a total loss of 62%, against a market gain of about 12%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Medallion Financial is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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