Why has the NIB share price leapt 14% in a month?

MotleyFool
2022-09-13

The NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF) share price has been a strong performer in recent weeks.

Since this time last month, the private health insurer’s shares have risen by almost 14% to $7.89.

This leaves the NIB share price trading within a whisker of its 52-week high of $8.20.

Why is the NIB share price on form?

Investors have been buying the company’s shares since the release of its full year results last month.

For the 12 months ended 30 June, NIB reported a 7.2% increase in revenue to $2.8 billion. This was driven by the company’s Australian Residents Health Insurance (ARHI) business, which grew well ahead of industry expectations thanks to strong premium revenue growth. This was despite the company deferring the 2022 annual premium increase.

And while NIB reported a 16.6% decline in net profit to $133.8 million, this reflects investment losses of $81.8 million and was still slightly ahead of consensus estimates.

Also giving its shares a lift was management’s outlook commentary. It appears cautiously optimistic on FY 2023. It said:

While wary of broader macro-economic conditions and ongoing COVID-19 threats, nib expects favourable market conditions for each of its businesses in FY23 and beyond.

Can its shares keep rising?

Unfortunately, most brokers appear to believe the NIB share price has now peaked.

The most bullish broker I’m aware of is Morgans with its hold rating and $8.36 price target. This implies potential upside of 6% for investors from current levels.

Its analysts are also expecting its shares to provide a fully franked 3.5% dividend yield in FY 2023. This stretches the total potential return to almost 10%, which isn’t bad for a hold rating.

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