GE Vernova Stock Is About to Trade. Here’s Where It Could Start

Dow Jones
2024/03/27

GE Vernova stock is about to trade. Investors can expect to see a price north of $100 a share.

GE Vernova sells products that generate, distribute, and control electricity—including huge wind turbines.GE Vernova sells products that generate, distribute, and control electricity—including huge wind turbines.

GE Vernova is the soon-to-be spun-off power generation business of General Electric. The spin will be completed on April 2 and the Vernova shares, which have the stock symbol “GEV,” are slated to begin trading today on a when-issued basis.

Shares of soon-to-be spun companies sometimes trade before the shares are delivered into brokerage accounts—that’s when issued trading. Volumes are typically low, but the early trades give investors an initial look into valuation.

The level where shares will start to trade is a guess. Wall Street has a few thoughts.

Wednesday morning, Wells Fargo analyst Matthew Akers increased his General Electric stock price target to $200 a share from $177. That includes $34 a share for Vernova.

GE shareholders will receive one share of GE Vernova for every four shares of GE held. That ratio means Akers’ Vernova value is $136 a share. That’s a level investors can watch for when shares start trading.

That’s at the high end of Wall Street estimates. Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu values Vernova at $25 per GE share—or $100 per Vernova share. BofA Securities analyst Andrew Obin uses a $29 price per GE share—or a $116 price per Vernova share.

Something in the range of $100 to $130 seems reasonable for GE Vernova stock, according to the Street.

At the midpoint of about $115 a share, Vernova would be trading at about 10 times projected 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda.

That’s similar to the average multiple for peers including Siemens Energy, Hubbell, Vestas Wind Systems, and Schneider Electric. The valuation multiples in that group, however, are wide-ranging. Schneider trades for roughly 17 times 2025 estimated Ebitda. Siemens Energy trades for less than 4 times.

Valuing Vernova isn’t easy. It has a mix of businesses including a money-losing wind business and a more stable gas-powered turbine business. What’s more, profitability is projected to improve in the coming years. That makes picking a valuation multiple based on 2024 or 2025 estimates tricky.

At roughly $30 a share for Vernova, GE Aerospace—the company left after the Vernova spin—is trading at about $144 a share, or about 26 times Akers’ standalone 2025 estimated earnings per share of $5.50.

The S&P 500 trades for about 19 times estimated 2025 earnings, lower than the implied value for GE Aerospace, but Aerospace is supposed to grow sales and earnings at above-market rates for the coming few years.

Soon, the value of Vernova will be deducted from the value of GE stock. The GE stock chart won’t show a drop of roughly $30 a share when the spin is completed. That way, investors can track the performance of GE shares without having to remember what happened in April 2024. The same thing happened when GE spun off GE HealthCare Technologies in early 2023.

GE stock is up 0.4% in premarket trading Wednesday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures were both up about 0.4%. Coming into Wednesday trading, GE stock has risen about 86% over the past 12 months.

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