Some stocks are best avoided. We don't wish catastrophic capital loss on anyone. Imagine if you held Viasat, Inc. (NASDAQ:VSAT) for half a decade as the share price tanked 83%. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 46%. Furthermore, it's down 25% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$114m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
Check out our latest analysis for Viasat
Viasat isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.
In the last half decade, Viasat saw its revenue increase by 14% per year. That's a pretty good rate for a long time period. So the stock price fall of 13% per year seems pretty steep. The truth is that the growth might be below expectations, and investors are probably worried about the continual losses.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. You can see what analysts are predicting for Viasat in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
While the broader market gained around 38% in the last year, Viasat shareholders lost 46%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 13% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Viasat (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Viasat is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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