Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Results overall were credible, with revenues arriving 4.4% better than analyst forecasts at US$81m. Higher revenues also resulted in lower statutory losses, which were US$0.38 per share, some 4.4% smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aemetis

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aemetis' six analysts is for revenues of US$466.8m in 2025. This would reflect a substantial 60% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 65% to US$0.68. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$467.1m and US$0.62 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a moderate increase in its losses per share forecasts.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$12.15, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aemetis analyst has a price target of US$28.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Aemetis' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 46% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.8% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aemetis to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aemetis. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Aemetis going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Aemetis (of which 2 are a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.