Nevro Corp. (NYSE:NVRO) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 4.2% better than analyst forecasts at US$97m. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at US$0.41 per share, were 4.2% smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Nevro

After the latest results, the consensus from Nevro's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$407.2m in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 2.9% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.58 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$411.9m and losses of US$2.57 per share in 2025.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$7.05, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nevro at US$13.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.3% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Nevro is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.05, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nevro. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Nevro going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Nevro , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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