For us, stock picking is in large part the hunt for the truly magnificent stocks. You won't get it right every time, but when you do, the returns can be truly splendid. For example, the Affluent Partners Holdings Limited (HKG:1466) share price is up a whopping 372% in the last three years, a handsome return for long term holders. We note the stock price is up 11% in the last seven days.
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
See our latest analysis for Affluent Partners Holdings
Because Affluent Partners Holdings made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Affluent Partners Holdings' revenue trended up 7.3% each year over three years. Considering the company is losing money, we think that rate of revenue growth is uninspiring. Therefore, we're a little surprised to see the share price gain has been so strong, at 68% per year, compound, over three years. We'll tip our hats to that, any day, but the top-line growth isn't particularly impressive when you compare it to other pre-profit companies. Shareholders would want to be sure that the share price rise is sustainable.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
We've already covered Affluent Partners Holdings' share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Affluent Partners Holdings hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 396% exceeds its share price return of 372%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
Investors in Affluent Partners Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 17%, against a market gain of about 17%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 5% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Affluent Partners Holdings you should be aware of.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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