BUZZ-COMMENT-Plight of emerging currencies may prove decisive

Reuters
2024/12/03

Dec 3 (Reuters) - The plight of emerging currencies may prove decisive with many of the most popular traded of these units trading weakly and several plumbing record lows.

The most probable outcome is a rise in demand for safer assets, of which the dollar is the safest and therefore likely to benefit the most, which could drive a number of less liquid currencies deeper into unknown territory.

The further they fall into uncharted waters, the harder it is for investors to hedge and the less liquid conditions become for them to adjust.

This may lead to official support or even the need for a combined response form major central banks to calm markets, and that might be hard to coordinate if there is a trade war that would certainly undermine emerging markets.

With traders currently betting against yen and Swiss franc following a big reduction in bets on gold rising, any flight to safety could spark a rapid adjustment that swiftly boosts their value which would further heighten risk aversion.

Of currencies under pressure, China's yuan which is closing on a record low versus dollar, or the collapse of Russia's rouble are the most high profile, but recent record lows for India's rupee, Brazil's real and Turkish lira show how widespread the issue is becoming.

It has negatively affected many other currencies with big slides recently for Hungary's forint, South African rand, Chilean peso, Taiwanese and Singapore dollars, Philippine peso, South Korean won, Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah.

The combined effect of these moves has driven MSCI's EM FX index to a big downside level, where a break could lead to a substantial drop that few are likely prepared for after the index set a record high at the end of September.

For more click on

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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))

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