A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Pembina Pipeline (PBA). Shares have lost about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Pembina Pipeline due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Pembina Pipeline’s Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Sales Fall Y/Y

Pembina Pipeline reported third-quarter 2024 earnings per share of 44 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56.  This underperformance was primarily due to weak delivery in the company’s Pipelines and facilities segments. PBA’s Pipelines volume for the third quarter of 2024 was reported at 2,738 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), below the consensus estimate of 2,754 mboe/d. Facilities volume for the same period was 810 mboe/d, missing the consensus expectation of 853 mboe/d. However, the bottom line improved from the year-ago quarter’s 42 cents.

Quarterly revenues of $1.4 billion decreased about 20.9% year over year. The metric also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.5 billion. Operating cash flow increased approximately 43.2% to C$922 million. Adjusted EBITDA was C$1,019 million compared with C$1,021 million in the year-ago period. In the third quarter, PBA witnessed volumes of 3,892 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) compared with 3,658 mboe/d reported in the prior-year quarter.

Pembina declared a cash dividend of 69 Canadian cents per share for the third quarter, subject to applicable law, on Dec. 16, 2024, to its shareholders of record as of Dec. 16.

The Canada-based oil and gas storage and transportation company reported a strong financial position as of Sept. 30, 2024. The ratio of proportionately consolidated debt-to-adjusted EBITDA on a trailing twelve-month basis was 3.6 times. The figure was at the lower end of the company's targeted range, indicating two quarters of contributions from the Alliance/Aux Sable Acquisition.

Segmental Information

Pipelines: The Canada-based oil and gas storage and transportation company reported a strong financial position as of Sept. 30, 2024. The ratio of proportionately consolidated debt-to-adjusted EBITDA on a trailing twelve-month basis was 3.6 times. The figure was at the lower end of the company's targeted range, indicating two quarters of contributions from the Alliance/Aux Sable Acquisition.

Volume increased about 2.2% year over year to 2,738 mboe/d.

Facilities: Adjusted EBITDA of C$324 million increased from the year-ago quarter’s C$319 million, driven by the recognition of Aux Sable volumes following the Alliance/Aux Sable acquisition. The figure, however, missed our projection of C$328.9 million.

Volumes of 810 mboe/d increased about 0.9% year over year.

Marketing & New Ventures: Adjusted EBITDA of C$159 million was in line with the year-ago quarter’s level.  The figure beat our projection of C$150.1 million.

Volumes of 344 mboe/d increased 34.9% year over year, driven by greater blending opportunities fueled by favorable price differentials. Natural gas liquids (NGL) sales volumes totaled 227 mboe/d in the third quarter, implying a 37% increase compared with the year-ago quarter’s level. This growth was due to higher sales of ethane, propane and butane, which were supported by the increased ownership stake in Aux Sable.

Capital Expenditure & Balance Sheet

Pembina spent C$262 million as capital expenditure in the quarter under review compared with C$169 million a year ago.

As of Sept. 30, 2024, PBA had cash and cash equivalents worth C$104 million and C$11.2 billion in long-term debt. Debt to capitalization was 39.6%.

Guidance

For 2024, Pembina expects its adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of C$4.23-C$4.33 billion, which is a narrower compared with the previous guidance of C$4.20-C$4.35 billion.

The company expects to maintain debt-to-adjusted EBITDA in the band of 3.4-3.6 times.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Pembina Pipeline has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Pembina Pipeline has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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