Executives from the nation’s largest banks expressed optimism on Tuesday about the prospects for 2025, citing favorable economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A less-hawkish Fed at the initial phase of this year and Fed rate cuts from September have steepened the yield curve to a certain limit, prompting a rally in bank ETFs.

SPDR S&P Bank ETF KBE is up 29% this year. Invesco KBW Bank ETF KBWB has advanced 38.1% in the year-to-date frame. These ETFs have outperformed the S&P 500 ETF SPY (up 27.5% this year) by a decent extent. Let’s find out what’s cooking up for bank ETFs in 2025.

J.P. Morgan Provides Optimistic Outlook

Marianne Lake, JPMorgan Chase’s JPM consumer chief, announced at a Goldman Sachs financial services conference (as quoted on Yahoo Finance) that the bank has raised its net interest income forecast for 2025 by $2 billion, reflecting an improved interest rate outlook.

Lake also projected a 45% increase in investment banking fees for Q4 of 2024, signaling the end of a prolonged dealmaking slump. Additionally, Lake anticipates trading revenues to grow in the "mid-teens or a little better year on year" during the same period.

Citigroup Sees Strong Revenue Growth

Citigroup C CFO Mark Mason reported that the bank expects to hit the "higher end" of its 2024 revenue guidance, ranging from $80 billion to $81 billion. He forecasted a 25% to 30% increase in investment banking fees and a rise in trading revenues for Q4 of 2024.

PNC’s Bullish Outlook

PNC Financial Services’ PNC CEO Bill Demchak expressed confidence in the banking sector, describing the business environment as being "as bullish as anything I’ve ever seen." He noted "amped-up energy across corporate America" and expressed hope that it would carry into 2025, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

Stock Performance and Economic Resilience

The upbeat sentiment comes as large U.S. banks enjoy a robust 2024, driven by economic resilience amid the steepening of the yield curve and a recovery in investment banking and trading operations. Stock prices of major banks like Citigroup, Goldman Sachs GS, JPMorgan Chase and PNC Financial Services have risen between 8% and 13% since the recent election.

A New Administration to Ease Regulations

Bank executives anticipate that the incoming Republican administration will relax regulations, including easing rules on corporate mergers that generate significant profits for Wall Street. The hope is that this leniency will boost lending and dealmaking activity.

Banks are also lobbying against proposed capital rules under Basel III, which would require them to hold greater buffers for future losses. While some regulators have signaled willingness to water down these requirements, the final outcome remains uncertain.

Uncertainty Around Policy Directions

Trump’s economic policies, including raising tariffs, lowering taxes and deporting undocumented immigrants, could raise inflation and lead the Fed not to take an extreme dovish stance in 2025. This may create some uncertainty for the banking sector. JPMorgan Chase’s Lake downplayed expectations of sweeping deregulation.

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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

$Citigroup Inc(C-N)$. (C) : Free Stock Analysis Report

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc (PNC) : Free Stock Analysis Report

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports

SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE): ETF Research Reports

Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB): ETF Research Reports

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