It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) share price down 15% in the last month. But the silver lining is the stock is up over five years. Unfortunately its return of 83% is below the market return of 94%.
While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
See our latest analysis for Magnolia Oil & Gas
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last half decade, Magnolia Oil & Gas became profitable. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd hope to see the share price to rise. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. We can see that the Magnolia Oil & Gas share price is up 24% in the last three years. In the same period, EPS is up 4.4% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 7% average annual increase in the share price over three years. So one can reasonably conclude the market is more enthusiastic about the stock than it was three years ago.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Magnolia Oil & Gas' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Magnolia Oil & Gas' TSR for the last 5 years was 95%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
Magnolia Oil & Gas provided a TSR of 8.8% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 14% per year for five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Magnolia Oil & Gas better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Magnolia Oil & Gas that you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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