Dec 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared more than 23% on Monday to mark their biggest daily percentage increase in two months, fueled by forecasts for more cold weather in January and an increased amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants.

On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged 78.4 cents, or 23.2%, to $4.17 per million British thermal units as of 9:57 am EST, in its biggest daily percentage increase since end-October.

Prices are trading at their highest level since January 2023 and are set for a 60% gain so far this year, the biggest annual gain since 2005.

"Natural gas bulls continue to find strength in the weather outlooks for January, with deep cold draped across the eastern portion of the U.S.," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy, adding that deep cold for the first two weeks of the New Year includes a plunge below freezing for much of Texas and temperatures in the single digits for Chicago.

Financial firm LSEG estimated 499 heating degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 399 estimated on Friday. It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, jumping to 148.4 bcfd this week from 120.2 bcfd last week.

"We are also seeing strong demands from LNG export facilities continue, with global demands for the fuel expected to remain high as output cuts from some North Sea assets should keep European buyers actively seeking cargoes to maintain storage levels, which have already fallen to ~60% of full in some regions," Cunningham added.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103.3 bcfd so far in December from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

Earlier in the day, Cheniere Energy said that liquefied natural gas (LNG) was produced for the first time from the first train (Train 1) of the company’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 Liquefaction Project.

That comes after Venture Global LNG's tanker Venture Bayou departed the Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana for Germany last week, carrying the first LNG cargo produced at the facility.

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were stable early on Monday as high output from wind and solar farms curbed demand for gas-fired power, offsetting nervousness about the expected end of Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine.

"With temperatures turning appreciably colder as this week progresses across the eastern half of the U.S. with extension of below normal trends toward mid-January according to some forecasts, the newly prompt February contract has pushed assertively through key resistance at the $3.55 level in keeping this month’s strong upside price acceleration much intact," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

Dec 27 Dec 20 Dec 20 average

Forecast Actual Dec 20

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -122 -93 -87 -127

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,407 3,529 3,515 3,363

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 4.5% 4.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year

Last Year Average Average

2023 (2018-2022

)

Henry Hub 4.08 3.85 2.54 2.66 3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 15.18 14.55 11.55 13.04 14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) - 14.29 13.97 14.03 14.39 14.31

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs 499 399 434 438 440

U.S. GFS CDDs 1 2 1 4 3

U.S. GFS TDDs 500 401 435 442 443

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year

Week Last Year (2019-2023

)Average

For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 103.1 104.8 103.7 105.6 97.8

U.S. Imports from Canada 10.4 9.5 10.6 N/A 8.7

U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

Total U.S. Supply 113.5 114.3 114.3 N/A 106.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 3.5 3.9 3.8 N/A 3.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.3 5.2 5.5 N/A 5.4

U.S. LNG Exports 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.7 10.8

U.S. Commercial 16.4 13.5 20.6 13.8 14.3

U.S. Residential 27.3 21.6 35.2 22.0 23.4

U.S. Power Plant 32.0 29.4 33.3 35.1 30.3

U.S. Industrial 25.3 24.4 26.8 24.7 25.1

U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.9 2.6 3.3 2.8 3.7

U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total U.S. Consumption 109.2 96.8 124.5 103.6 102.1

Total U.S. Demand 132.3 120.2 148.4 N/A 121.7

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam 2025 2025 2024 2003 2022

Current Day Prior Day % of Normal % of Normal % of

% of Normal % of Normal Actual Actual Normal

Forecast Forecast Actual

Apr-Sep 93 93 74 83 107

Jan-Jul 92 92 76 77 102

Oct-Sep 93 93 77 76 103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Week ended 2023 2022 2021

Jan.3 Dec 27

Wind 12 9 10 11 10

Solar 3 3 4 3 3

Hydro 6 6 6 6 7

Other 1 1 2 2 2

Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas 37 39 41 38 37

Coal 16 20 17 21 23

Nuclear 25 22 19 19 20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

Henry Hub 2.91

Transco Z6 New York 2.24

PG&E Citygate 2.21

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.19

Chicago Citygate 2.57

Algonquin Citygate 3.29

SoCal Citygate 2.68

Waha Hub 0.99

AECO 1.80

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

New England

PJM West

Ercot North

Mid C

Palo Verde

SP-15

(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Swati Verma; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

((anushree.ashishMukherjee@thomsonreuters.com;))

((For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down. For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: For the U.S. power speed guide, see: To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub futures only ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps ))