For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.
Despite being in the age of tech-stock blue-sky investing, many investors still adopt a more traditional strategy; buying shares in profitable companies like Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO). While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.
Check out our latest analysis for Assured Guaranty
Generally, companies experiencing growth in earnings per share (EPS) should see similar trends in share price. So it makes sense that experienced investors pay close attention to company EPS when undertaking investment research. Assured Guaranty's shareholders have have plenty to be happy about as their annual EPS growth for the last 3 years was 59%. That sort of growth rarely ever lasts long, but it is well worth paying attention to when it happens.
It's often helpful to take a look at earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. Not all of Assured Guaranty's revenue this year is revenue from operations, so keep in mind the revenue and margin numbers used in this article might not be the best representation of the underlying business. Unfortunately, Assured Guaranty's revenue dropped 7.1% last year, but the silver lining is that EBIT margins improved from 25% to 61%. While not disastrous, these figures could be better.
In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart.
Fortunately, we've got access to analyst forecasts of Assured Guaranty's future profits. You can do your own forecasts without looking, or you can take a peek at what the professionals are predicting.
It's a necessity that company leaders act in the best interest of shareholders and so insider investment always comes as a reassurance to the market. Shareholders will be pleased by the fact that insiders own Assured Guaranty shares worth a considerable sum. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at US$233m. Investors will appreciate management having this amount of skin in the game as it shows their commitment to the company's future.
Assured Guaranty's earnings per share have been soaring, with growth rates sky high. This level of EPS growth does wonders for attracting investment, and the large insider investment in the company is just the cherry on top. The hope is, of course, that the strong growth marks a fundamental improvement in the business economics. So based on this quick analysis, we do think it's worth considering Assured Guaranty for a spot on your watchlist. Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Assured Guaranty (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.
Although Assured Guaranty certainly looks good, it may appeal to more investors if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see companies with more skin in the game, then check out this handpicked selection of companies that not only boast of strong growth but have strong insider backing.
Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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