** Ahead of Q4 earnings for European pharma, Jefferies focuses on Sanofi's SASY.PA 2025 upside, while flagging earnings risks to Novo Nordisk NOVOb.CO, AstraZeneca AZN.L and GSK GSK.L

** "Generalist interest in EU Pharma is subdued," Jefferies says, citing macro rotation and U.S. political concerns

** The broker says Sanofi might miss Q4 sales and EPS consensus, but adds the focus will be on the size of the share buyback which it estimates at EUR 8 billion ($8.25 billion)

** It expects the French group's longer-term R&D spending increase, with confidence in its amlitelimab and duvakitug drugs, to be in focus

** It says Roche ROG.S may meet 2024 outlook and highlights the company's M&A areas of interest, pipeline prioritisation and longer-term growth in R&D spend

** Novartis NOVN.S might have lower-than-expected sales, but higher profits than expected in Q4, Jefferies says, noting the new product launches and Phase 3 of pelacarsen

** Following Eli Lilly's LLY.N pre-announced Q4, Jefferies expects Novo Nordisk to slightly miss sales and profit estimates

** Jefferies focuses on GSK's plans for long-acting HIV injectables, market trends for their drugs in the U.S. and China, and preparations for the re-launch of Blenrep

($1 = 0.9696 euros)

(Reporting by Vera Dvorakova)

((vera.dvorakova@thomsonreuters.com))