W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB is slated to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Jan. 27, after market close. The insurer delivered an earnings surprise in each of the last four reported quarters.

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Factors to Consider

Gross premiums written in the Insurance segment are likely to have benefited from well-performing other liability, short-tail lines and commercial auto. We expect the metric to be $3.3 billion, up 2.3% from the year-ago reported number.  
Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment’s gross premiums written is expected to have improved, banking on well-performing monoline excess and property reinsurance. We expect the metric to be $349.8 million, up 5.8% from year ago reported number.  
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 premiums earned is pegged at $2.97 billion.  Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $2.92 billion, indicating a 7.4% upside from the year-ago reported number.

Improving cash flows and an increase in fixed-maturity income from a growing portfolio with higher yields are likely to have aided net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 net investment income is pegged at $344 million. We estimate the metric to be $323.8 million, indicating an increase of 27.9% from the year-ago reported number.

Improvement in premiums, coupled with higher investment income, is likely to have aided revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $3.5 billion, indicating an upside of 9.1% from the year-ago reported figure.

Higher losses and loss expenses, expenses from non-insurance business, higher investment in technology and data and analytics as well as new startup operating unit expenses are likely to have increased expenses. We expect total expenses to increase 10.9% to $3 billion.

Changes in reinsurance structures, as well as a change in business mix inducing increased compensation costs and start-up operating unit expenses, are likely to have contributed to the higher expense ratio. We estimate the metric to deteriorate 19 basis points in the to-be-reported quarter.

Underwriting profitability is likely to have benefited from prudent pricing and increased exposure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the combined ratio as well as our estimate is pegged at 91.

Continued share buybacks are likely to have provided additional support to the bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at 94 cents, indicating a 3.1% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for W.R. Berkley this time around. This is because the stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for an earnings beat. This is not the case, as you can see here.

Earnings ESP: W.R. Berkley has an Earnings ESP of -1.77% at present. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 92 cents is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 94 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

W.R. Berkley Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

W.R. Berkley Corporation price-eps-surprise | W.R. Berkley Corporation Quote

Zacks Rank: W.R. Berkley carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three P&C insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

American Financial Group AFG has an Earnings ESP of +6.68% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $3.11, indicating a year-over-year increase of 9.5%.

AFG’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters while missing in the other two.

RenaissanceRe RNR has an Earnings ESP of +9.14% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $7.39, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 37.2%.

RNR’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Allstate Corporation ALL has an Earnings ESP of +9.56% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $6.15 per share, implying an increase of 5.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

ALL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

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W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) : Free Stock Analysis Report

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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