• Public Sector and Housing Premiums: Represent close to 50% of premiums in 2024, up from 29% in 2019.
• Growth in 2024: Strong growth in all countries except Sweden, with significant contributions from the UK.
• Quarter Four Growth: Driven by the UK business, including renewals and new sales.
• January 1 New Sales in France: EUR 25 million, with a small overweight on the property product.
• French Market Size: Defined as attractive at approximately EUR 1.5 billion.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with CLS.

Release Date: January 30, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Protector Forsikring ASA (FRA:PR4) reported strong growth in 2024, particularly in the UK, with significant contributions from all countries except Sweden.
• The company has successfully increased its market share in the public sector and housing segments, which now represent close to 50% of premiums.
• Protector Forsikring ASA (FRA:PR4) has maintained a high renewal rate, driven by low churn and effective price increases to counter claims inflation.
• The company's strategic entry into the French market is progressing well, with a focus on public sector and motor fleet segments, supported by strong broker relationships.
• Protector Forsikring ASA (FRA:PR4) has managed to keep IT costs stable despite significant premium growth, indicating efficient resource management.

Negative Points

• The cost ratio for Q4 2024 was a weak point, with inefficiencies noted despite recruitment efforts to support growth.
• Protector Forsikring ASA (FRA:PR4) experienced volatility in loss ratios due to large losses and runoff situations, particularly in Denmark.
• Growth in Sweden was negatively impacted by a portfolio cleanup, which temporarily reduced growth figures.
• The French market entry poses risks, with potential volatility in loss history and growth as the company builds a critical mass.
• The company faces challenges in achieving profitability improvements in Denmark, with a need for further price increases above claims inflation.

Q & A Highlights

Q: In which year will Protector Forsikring become a quality leader in the French market? A: We will decide on this during a workshop with the team, and it is expected to be similar to the UK, which was after 18 months. - Henrik Golfetto Hoye, CEO

Q: What is the expected cost base for France in the first year, and are you pricing in learning curve effects in underwriting? A: We will spend what is necessary to secure good people in France. The cost base will increase as we hire more during 2025. We price and underwrite risks according to our long-term profitability goals, expecting similar results to other markets. - Henrik Golfetto Hoye, CEO

Q: How do you choose which counties and municipalities to engage with in France, given the EUR1.5 billion market target? A: The EUR1.5 billion target is based on commercial fleet and motor segments across France. We bid on clients that are out to tender, and social factors are one of many criteria evaluated. Data quality is crucial for quoting. - Unidentified Company Representative

Q: What is the hit ratio in France compared to the start in the UK, and is the motor fleet public or commercial? A: The hit ratio for motor fleet in France is approximately 10%, mostly commercial with some public sector. The public sector side has a higher hit ratio than what we started with in the UK. - Henrik Golfetto Hoye, CEO

Q: How does the role of brokers in the French market differ from the UK market? A: In the French public sector, brokers act as consultants, similar to the UK housing sector. They handle frequency claims up to certain levels, and we handle large claims. This model fits Protector as a challenger in the market. - Henrik Golfetto Hoye, CEO

Q: What are the main competitors in France, and what cost advantage does Protector have? A: The main competitor in the public sector is Smackle, which has high cost ratios and poor claims results. This differs from other markets where prices have been higher. In motor, the market is more competitive, similar to the UK. - Henrik Golfetto Hoye, CEO

Q: Can you shed light on the renewal rate versus retention and competition trends? A: High renewal rates are driven by low churn and price increases. Competition remains rational, with no large new competitors entering the Nordic market. The UK market varies by segment, with public sector and housing still lacking full competition. - Henrik Golfetto Hoye, CEO

Q: Do you have management capacity to work on the next market after France? A: Currently, no, but we are continuously planning for succession and developing people through the French project. We are also exploring new markets, like the US, to be ready when we decide to expand. - Henrik Golfetto Hoye, CEO

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.