Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:THR), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$134m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 16%, coming in at US$0.54 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Thermon Group Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Thermon Group Holdings' four analysts is for revenues of US$539.7m in 2026. This reflects a solid 9.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 24% to US$1.72. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$545.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.79 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 9.5% to US$35.00, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Thermon Group Holdings at US$37.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$32.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Thermon Group Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Thermon Group Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Thermon Group Holdings. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Thermon Group Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Thermon Group Holdings is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.