Shareholders of Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to US$21.43 following its latest annual results. Revenues were US$5.4b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$1.58 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 15%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Mattel

Taking into account the latest results, Mattel's twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$5.48b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.63, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.49 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 5.7% to US$25.47. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Mattel, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$21.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Mattel's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 4.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Mattel is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Mattel following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mattel going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Mattel that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.