Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is finally making moves in India, and this time, it looks serious. Fresh job postings in Mumbai and Delhispanning sales, service, and operationssuggest the EV giant is gearing up for a real market entry. This comes hot on the heels of Elon Musk's recent meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington, where they discussed tech, mobility, and innovation. Tesla has played a long game with India, stalling in 2021 over steep import duties. But with India slashing tariffs on EVs priced above $40,000, Tesla now has a clear runway to test the waters in the world's third-largest auto market.

Still, skepticism lingers. Tesla has flirted with India beforehiring key execs, lobbying for lower tariffsonly to hit pause and pivot elsewhere. India's EV sector, while growing, remains in its early days, with just over 100,000 electric cars sold last year compared to China's 11 million. Local automakers are also fiercely protective of their turf, meaning Tesla will have to fight for market share. And while job postings hint at a commitment, Musk's recent focus on optimizing existing production over expanding capacity raises questions: Is Tesla here to build, or is it just dipping a toe in?

For investors, timing is everything. Tesla's global sales have softened, competition from BYD (BYDDF) is heating up, and the broader EV boom isn't what it was a year ago. Add in the geopolitical wild cardTrump's potential return and his trade policiesand Tesla's India strategy gets even murkier. Until there's a firm commitment to local manufacturing or a big investment announcement, this remains a watch-and-see play. The opportunity is real, but so are the risks.