Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
02/21

The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0913 GMT - Sibanye Stillwater's 2024 results were broadly in line with expectations but its 2025 guidance was weaker than expected, RBC Capital Markets analysts Marina Calero and Laura Chan write. The weaker guidance is largely driven by higher cost and capital expenditure at Stillwater and its South African platinum group metals operations, they write. Sibanye expects capital expenditure at its South African PGM operations to be around $360 million, which is 16% higher than the analysts had expected. Sibanye's all-in sustaining cost guidance of between $1,420 and $1,460 an ounce at its Stillwater facility is 23% ahead of the analysts' expectations, they add. Shares trade down 8.4% at 1,565.00 rand. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0800 GMT - Air Liquide's expectation of further operating-margin growth in the next two years should be taken positively by investors, Jefferies analysts say in a note. The French industrial-gases company introduced a new 2025-26 EBIT margin growth target of 1 percentage point, suggesting an improvement in run rate into 4Q, the analysts say. (helena.smolak@wsj.com)

0115 GMT - Chalice Mining's metallurgical breakthrough signals lower operating costs at its Gonneville deposit in Western Australia and reduced complexity, but it may not satisfy investors, suggests Barrenjoey. Chalice says it's now able to produce copper and nickel concentrates from low-grade composites, removing the need for a high-cost hydrometallurgical process. Analyst Richard Knights says Gonneville could now generate a 19% internal rate of return. "However, our project net present value is still comfortably less than Chalice's market cap (A$565 million), even after modelling a debt funded doubling of capacity after four years of operation." Chalice needs a step-change in palladium prices or an ability to feed higher grade material to the plant for longer to excite investors, Barrenjoey adds. It retains an underweight call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1801 GMT - Ferrexpo says it has "not received any formal notification" that the Ukrainian government has initiated proceedings to nationalize its Poltava mining and processing plant. The London-based miner adds it is working with its legal advisors to understand the situation. The statement comes after media reports that the Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigations is seeking court approval to nationalize the mine and its assets, which are a subsidiary of Ferrexpo, because of the alleged misappropriation of around $8.86 million related to illegal mining. Shares fall 30%, to 69 pence. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

1506 GMT - Shares in London-listed miner Ferrexpo plunged in mid-afternoon trade on reports that the Ukrainian government has initiated proceedings to nationalize its Poltava mining and processing plant. The mine and its assets are a subsidiary of Ferrexpo. The Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigations is seeking court approval to nationalize the assets, citing the alleged misappropriation of around $8.86 million related to illegal mining, Reuters reported earlier today. Shares fell 28% to 72.10 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

1032 GMT - Anglo American's hopes of finding a buyer for its De Beers diamond unit in the near term are slim, AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould writes. This is because the outlook for De Beers is so bleak as lab-grown diamonds have flooded the market, he writes. Despite the $2.9 billion write down, investors have focused on the rapid progress the London-listed miner has made since rebuffing a bid from BHP last year, Mould writes. Investors like the streamlined business but it could make it more vulnerable to further bid interest, he adds. Shares trade up 3% at 2,442.00 pence and are up 38% over the past year.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

1018 GMT - Rio Tinto's earnings generation proves its diversified model works, Jefferies analysts write. The London and Sydney listed miner reported a 2% fall in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization despite an 11% decrease in benchmark iron ore prices, they write. While other miners turn their attention towards copper, Rio is positioned to continue generating strong cash flow from iron ore despite its weak price, they write. Cash flow from base iron ore will enable Rio to continue to pay a healthy dividend even in a weaker macro environment, and should make the miner relatively defensive versus its peers, they write. The analysts like Rio's defensive position and believe its shares are undervalued. Rio Tinto's London listed shares rose 0.75% to 5,074.00 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0941 GMT - Rio Tinto's 2024 results were broadly in line with expectations and the Anglo-Australian mining company provided a steady outlook for the future, energy and materials analyst at Quilter Cheviot Maurizio Carulli writes. It is reassuring to see that group earnings decreased by only 2% despite an 8% fall in iron-ore prices, he writes. While acquisitions pushed net debt up to $5.5 billion in 2024, it remains at comfortable level, he says. The miner boasts a solid portfolio of assets and the significant barriers to entry in iron ore and copper strengthen Rio Tinto's market position, he writes. Rio Tinto's London listed shares rise 0.75% to 5,074.00 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 21, 2025 04:20 ET (09:20 GMT)

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