It's been a sad week for UFP Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPT), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$232 in the week since the company reported its annual result. UFP Technologies reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$504m and statutory earnings per share of US$7.58, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for UFP Technologies

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for UFP Technologies from three analysts is for revenues of US$582.7m in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 4.7% to US$8.05. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$593.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.54 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$381, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values UFP Technologies at US$392 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$370. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting UFP Technologies is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that UFP Technologies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 23% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while UFP Technologies' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$381, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple UFP Technologies analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for UFP Technologies that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.