Shareholders in Cato (NYSE:CATO) are in the red if they invested three years ago

Simply Wall St.
03-03

It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But you want to avoid the really big losses like the plague. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of The Cato Corporation (NYSE:CATO) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 82%. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 53% in the last year. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 8.4% in a month. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

Check out our latest analysis for Cato

Given that Cato didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

In the last three years Cato saw its revenue shrink by 4.4% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. Having said that the 22% annualized share price decline highlights the risk of investing in unprofitable companies. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. There's no more than a snowball's chance in hell that share price will head back to its old highs, in the short term.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:CATO Earnings and Revenue Growth March 3rd 2025

This free interactive report on Cato's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Cato's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Cato's TSR, which was a 77% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 17% in the last year, Cato shareholders lost 49%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Cato you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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