It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). Shares have lost about 9.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Old Dominion due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

 Earnings Beat at Old Dominion in Q4

Old Dominion Freight Line’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings per share of   $1.23 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 but dropped 16.3% year over year. Management stated that all per-share data, even for the prior-year period, have been adjusted to reflect the two-for-one stock split. ODFL announced the stock split in the first quarter.

Revenues of $1.39 billion marginally beat our Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.38 billion but decreased 7.3% year over year. An 8.2% decline in less-than-truckload tons per day hurt results.

Revenues from LTL services came in at $1.37 billion, down 7.4% year over year. Revenues from LTL services were in line with our estimates. Revenues from other services fell 3.8% to $13.5 million, which was just above our projection of $13.2 million.

In the quarter under review, LTL weight per shipment dipped 0.7%, and LTL revenue per shipment inched down 1.1%. LTL shipments and LTL shipments per day were down 6.1% and 7.6%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. LTL revenue per hundredweight decreased 0.4%.

Total operating expenses fell by 2.1% year over year to $1.05 billion. The operating income decreased 20.7% to $334.02 million.

Old Dominion exited the December quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $108.7 million compared with $433.8 million in 2023-end. Long-term debt at the end of the quarter was $40 million compared with $60 million at 2023-end. Capital expenditures were $170.9 million.

The company paid out dividends worth $223.6 million and repurchased shares worth $967.3 million in the first nine months of the year. For 2024, ODFL anticipates total capital expenditures to be $750 million. Of the total, ODFL expects its aggregate capital expenditures for 2025 to total approximately $575 million, including planned expenditures of $300 million for real estate and service center expansion projects, $225 million for tractors and trailers, and $50 million for information technology and other assets.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Old Dominion has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Old Dominion has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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