Traton SE (ETR:8TRA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.8% to €34.40 in the week after its latest full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €47b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Traton surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €5.61 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Traton after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Traton

Taking into account the latest results, Traton's 14 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €47.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 5.6% to €5.29 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €47.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.54 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €37.02, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Traton at €51.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €29.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Traton shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Traton's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Traton's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Traton is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Traton's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Traton going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Traton (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.