Tesla Stock Dives 3.8%. Wall Street Is Worried About More Than Musk

Dow Jones
03-18

Tesla stock was dropping again Tuesday after a tough Monday.

Tesla investors lately have dealt with a lot, including falling estimates for first-quarter and full-year deliveries while CEO Elon Musk spends a lot of time in Washington, D.C.

Shares of the electric-vehicle maker were down 3.6% in premarket trading at $229.47, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures each were down 0.3%.

The drop Tuesday came after RBC analyst Tom Narayan cut his Tesla stock price target to $320 from $440. He kept his buy rating.

"Much of the attention around Tesla has centered on its recent delivery performance in Jan. and Feb. in Europe and China," wrote Narayan.

Early 2025 sales results for Tesla have been weak, leading Wall Street to cut estimates for first-quarter and full-year deliveries.

"We think fears [about] demand could be overblown, however. That said, in this report, we lower our [Full Self-Driving] pricing and robotaxi penetration assumptions," added the analyst.

Tesla charges U.S. drivers about $100 a month to access FSD, the company's highest-level driver assistance product. Advances from other auto makers make it less likely Tesla can keep charging $100. He sees a price cut to $50 a month coming.

The stock's decline in premarket trading came after shares fell 4.8% on Monday. Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh cut his full-year delivery estimate to 1.8 million vehicles from 2.3 million. Tesla delivered about 1.8 million cars in 2024, so Rakesh doesn't expect any growth.

"We believe Tesla's sales woes are the result of a deterioration in geopolitics, brand perception (US/EU), share loss due to stronger competition (China), and softer-than-expected demand for the Model Y refresh," wrote the analyst.

He kept his Buy rating on Tesla stock but cut his price target to $430 from $515 while maintaining his Buy rating.

Overall, Wall Street expects the EV maker to deliver about 2 million cars in 2025, down from an expectation of about 2.1 million a few weeks ago. The most current estimates, however, are closer to 1.8 million cars.

The pattern looks similar for the first quarter. Wall Street expects about 420,000 deliveries, down from about 470,000 a few weeks ago. The most current estimates, however, are closer to 360,000 vehicles.

Tesla delivered about 387,000 cars in the first quarter of 2024. Tesla might not grow deliveries year over year after posting a record fourth quarter when it sold almost 500,000 cars.

Falling estimates have weighed on investor sentiment. Coming into Tuesday's trading, Tesla stock was down 41% so far this year and down 5% since the Nov. 5 election. Shares rallied after President Donald Trump won the vote, trading as high as $488.54 on Dec. 18.

Investors were excited about the potential for the second Trump administration to give Tesla a boost, possibly by making regulations that facilitate the introduction of self-driving cars. Tesla plans to launch a robotaxi service in 2025. But weak sales data to start the year have investors worried that Musk's political activities are turning off car buyers.

Shares are trying to avoid their ninth consecutive weekly loss. Falling for eight straight weeks is already the longest streak on record for Tesla shares.

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