Apple Stock Gets Price Target Boost. It's a "Lower Risk Way to Play the AI Theme"

Dow Jones
03-18

Apple is positioned to remain a "tech staple" and reap the benefits of the artificial-intelligence boom, Evercore ISI analysts argued in their fifth annual Apple Primer, which was released Tuesday.

The analysts boosted their price target to $275 from $260 and reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares, which were were down 0.2% to $213.63 in premarket trading. Evercore's bull case implies that the price can climb to as high as $375, suggesting a 76% upside from current levels.

The analysts expect sustainable revenue growth in the mid-single digits over the next few years. Earnings per share and free cash flow should see low-to-mid teens growth over the same period, they argued. While Wall Street is generally bullish on the stock, the analysts believe Apple's ability to keep growing through product mix and pricing, operating leverage, and buybacks often is overlooked.

The Evercore team sees Apple benefiting from AI monetization in the near future without having to invest heavily in graphics processings units. "Apple has a strong track record of bringing chip design in-house which has benefited both product functionality and gross margins," the analysts noted.

The tech giant released its first in-house-designed chip in 2008 and began to design custom GPUs starting with the iPhone X nearly a decade later. Apple also designs co-processors for some Mac models, which work alongside the main processors supplied by Intel.

"In-housing more chip design is the most obvious lever for Apple to pull with respect to product gross margins," the analysts wrote, positing that its 5G modem chip is "the most likely candidate."

With this in mind, they believe Apple is "an underappreciated, lower risk way to play the AI theme," with the "recent excitement around DeepSeek" only strengthening their conviction. Increased demand for consumer electronics should drive iPhone and Mac sales as users upgrade to next-generation devices, which have Apple Intelligence built-in, while a "smaller, but more immediate benefit" presents itself through App Store fees on subscriptions to ChatGPT and similar apps.

Other growth levers include iPhone demand in emerging markets such as India, replacement cycle dynamics, and the proliferation of wearables such as the Apple Watch, which have "plenty of upside."

"Apple can sustain if not expand their current valuation given not just a strong free cash flow generation, but also their commitment to returning 100% to shareholders," the analysts wrote. In their view, the stock should benefit from "less volatility and high consistency" over time.

Evercore is included among 50 firms polled by FactSet on Apple. Of those surveyed, 31 rate the shares at Buy or equivalent, 14 at Hold, and five at Sell or equivalent.

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