Australia dollar marks time before budget but gains on kiwi

Reuters
03-25
Australia dollar marks time before budget but gains on kiwi

Australia, New Zealand dollars mostly quiet as stocks rally

Focus on Australian budget later on Tuesday

Bonds fall in line with Treasuries

SYDNEY, March 25 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars marked time on Tuesday, having drawn a little support from the optimism of U.S. tariff exemptions for some countries, while the bond market kept an eye out for the Australian federal budget due later in the day.

The Aussie AUD=D3 idled at $0.6286, having bounced 0.2% overnight to as high as $0.6305. Support is around $0.6260, while resistance is at $0.6390.

The kiwi dollar NZD=D3 was 0.1% lower at $0.5722, after finishing Monday largely flat. Resistance is at the 2025 high of $0.5830 and support at $0.5680.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that automobile tariffs are coming soon, and said he may give "a lot of countries" breaks on tariffs, but provided no details. That sent U.S. stocks sharply higher, while investors sold off bonds. .N

The Aussie also bounced against the kiwi AUDNZD=R, touching a one-week top of NZ$1.0992 on Tuesday.

"AUD tends to be more sensitive to threats to the global economy, compared to the NZD. There is much more positioning in AUD than in NZD," said Kristina Clifton, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Australia's bond market is awaiting the release of the annual government budget due at 7:30 p.m. AEDT (0830 GMT).

Many details have already been released, so it is not expected to be a market mover. The Reserve Bank of Australia, however, will be watching, having already warned that prospects of further policy easing are not guaranteed.

Swaps imply the RBA will most likely skip a move in April, having cut rates for the first time in over four years in February, while the chance of a cut in May is seen at just 68%.

Rates are seen falling to 3.4% by the end of the year, from the current 4.1%, equivalent to fewer than three cuts.

"While a pre-election budget, we don't expect any large new policy announcements and would be surprised if the shift to the fiscal impulse will be large enough to shift macro forecasts," said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at the National Australia Bank.

Australia is due to hold a federal election by May 17, though the date has not yet been set.

Local bond yields rose in tandem with their global peers. Australia's three-year government bond yield AU3YT=RR edged up 2 bps to 3.777%, while the 10-year bond yield AU10YT=RR rose 4 bps to 4.452%.

(Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Jamie Freed)

((yifan.qiu@thomsonreuters.com))

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