Tesla stock has had a wild,mostly downhill, ride since President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration. This week, attention will turn away from Washington, D.C., and back to Austin, Texas, with first-quarter delivery results due out on Wednesday.

Tesla doesn’t need to top analyst delivery estimates for the stock to rise.

For the quarter, Wall Street expects 410,000 vehicles delivered, according to FactSet, up from about 387,000 delivered in the first quarter of 2024.

There is little chance deliveries will be that good. Wall Street estimates tend to grow stale—not every analyst updates them at the same frequency. The company-compiled consensus from dozens of brokers is closer to 378,000 vehicles.

That’s a better number to use when judging results. Still, the most current estimates are in the 360,000 range, with analysts citing CEO Elon Musk’s politics and the Model Y changeover for their estimate reductions.

Musk’s actions in the Trump administration have investors worried he’s turning off Tesla’s traditional buyers—politically left-leaning people looking to go green. Tesla locations have faced politically motivated protests and even vandalism in recent weeks.

As for the Y, Tesla updated its best-selling vehicle, and when a new version of any new car comes out there is typically an air pocket while production ramps up and buyers wait for the new model with additional bells and whistles.

Any number above 360,000 should be good enough for the stock. That’s below the company-compiled consensus and is down compared with 2024, but investors need to consider the starting point. Tesla stock has been hammered lately.

Coming into the last day of the month, Tesla stock was down 35% through February and March. That’s the second-worst two-month stretch for shares ever. Tesla stock dropped 46% in the last two months of 2022.

While Tesla stock rallied 6% this past week, snapping a nine-week losing streak, it was still down more than 10% for March after falling 28% in February—which was the second-worst month for Tesla stock ever.

The worst month ever was December 2022, part of the worst two-month streak, and shortly after Musk wrapped up his purchase of social-media platform Twitter, which he renamed X. The two eras have a common thread: Musk’s non-Tesla-related activities.

Back then, investors worried about Musk’s time management and whether his frequent tweeting would injure Tesla’s brand. Today, they are worried that Musk’s political action with DOGE and the Trump administration will injure Tesla’s brand.

Tesla responded to the Twitter/X drama by selling 1.8 million cars in 2023, up from 1.3 million in 2022. There was no growth in 2024, with Tesla selling roughly 1.8 million vehicles again. Selling more cars in 2025 would go a long way to helping calm investors’ nerves.

Tesla stock was dropping 4.4% in premarket trading at $252.06, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.