US gas output on track to hit monthly record in March
US LNG export feedgas set to hit monthly record in March
US gas inventories on track for rare build in March
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Friday on record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and a decline in daily output.
On its first day as the front month, gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.5 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $4.065 per million British thermal units, their highest close since March 19.
For the week, the contract was up about 2% after sliding about 3% in the prior week.
Mild weather and low demand through mid-April should allow utilities to keep adding gas to storage in coming weeks with some analysts saying stockpiles were on track to increase in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history.
Gas stockpiles, however, were still about 5% below normal levels for this time of year after extremely cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Mild weather and ample hydropower in the U.S. West caused spot power prices at the South Path 15 (SP-15) hub W-SP15-IDX in Southern California to turn negative for the first time since June 2024. Power prices at SP-15 first fell into negative territory in 2024, averaging below zero on 18 days last year, according to data from financial firm LSEG going back to 2001.
Next-day prices at SP-15 fell to minus $5.23 per megawatt hour. That compares with an average of $28.05 so far in 2025, $31.30 in 2024 and an average of $58.87 during the prior five years (2019-2023).
At the Mid-Columbia hub W-MIDCP-IDX in Oregon, meanwhile, next-day power prices dropped to $6.57 per MWh, their lowest since May 2023.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in March from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary one-week low of 105.2 bcfd on Friday. Traders noted preliminary data was often changed later in the day.
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 12.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 108.5 bcfd this week to 102.9 bcfd next week before edging up to 103.3 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Gas flowing to the eight big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.8 bcfd so far in March, from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant under construction in Louisiana entered service.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas traded around $13 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Mar 28 Forecast | Week ended Mar 21 Actual | Year ago Mar 28 | Five-year average Mar 28 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +15 | +37 | -37 | -13 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,759 | 1,744 | 2,264 | 1,853 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -5.1% | -6.5% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.84 | 3.93 | 1.75 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 13.01 | 12.98 | 8.54 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.18 | 13.20 | 8.95 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 184 | 181 | 233 | 219 | 207 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 31 | 34 | 31 | 23 | 22 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 215 | 215 | 264 | 242 | 229 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 106.1 | 106.4 | 106.0 | 101.6 | 97.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.1 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 114.8 | 115.2 | 114.1 | N/A | 105.4 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 16.0 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 11.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 10.4 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 11.8 |
U.S. Residential | 15.7 | 15.1 | 12.5 | 16.9 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 24.1 | 26.1 | 25.4 | 28.6 | 27.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.5 | 23.7 | 23.0 | 24.3 | 23.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.2 | 82.8 | 77.2 | 88.6 | 90.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 107.1 | 108.5 | 102.9 | N/A | 110.6 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 95 | 97 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 93 | 95 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 93 | 94 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Mar 21 | Week ended Mar 14 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 14 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 32 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 16 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.88 | 3.84 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.83 | 3.14 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.20 | 2.34 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.78 | 3.09 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.00 | 3.27 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.05 | 3.51 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.15 | 2.51 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.54 | 0.47 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 2.01 | 2.04 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 40.67 | 40.67 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 39.16 | 49.92 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 6.57 | 13.13 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 9.88 | 16.00 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | -5.23 | 4.52 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Rod Nickel)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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