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Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in March: Lowest since May 2020

Calculated Risk
04-02

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Click on graph for larger image. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."


Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 403 thousand SAAR in March, down from 436 thousand in February, and down 12.1% from 459 thousand SAAR in February 2025.  

Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 10.1%.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Perhaps heavy truck sales will be revised up, but this was somewhat weak.

As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales "surged" in March to 17.77 million SAAR as some buyers rushed to beat the tariffs.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.  

Light vehicle sales were at 17.77 million SAAR in March, up 11.0% from February, and up 13.3% from March 2024.

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