Nvidia's Stock Hasn't Had a Month This Bad Since the Last Big Crypto Crash

Dow Jones
04-01

Before Nvidia's story was dominated by AI GPUs, the stock was subject to swings related to crypto demand for its graphics cards

Shares of Nvidia Corp. continued their downward trend Monday, notching their biggest monthly drop since September 2022 - a time before artificial intelligence had lit Nvidia's business on fire and while the company's business was more prone to changing trends in the cryptocurrency market.

Now Nvidia $(NVDA)$ faces different issues. Monday's decline built on losses sustained last week, when Nvidia's stock came under pressure in the wake of skeptical AI commentary from Chinese executives, questions about the costly pace of AI data-center buildouts in the U.S. and concerns over tightening export controls that could affect sales of Nvidia's graphics processing units to China.

In addition, Nvidia's stock could still be feeling the sting of CoreWeave Inc.'s $(CRWV)$ underwhelming initial public offering last week. CoreWeave, a developer of dedicated AI data centers and an Nvidia partner, ended up downsizing its offering, and shares have struggled to find momentum since opening on Friday.

"CoreWeave's disappointing IPO is not reflecting well on NVDA today," Gil Luria, a D.A. Davidson analyst who rates Nvidia's stock at neutral, said in an email to MarketWatch. "In spite of Nvidia stepping in to save the IPO, shares priced well below the initial range and are down more today, putting at risk its ability to raise more capital to continue to buy Nvidia chips."

In February, Luria recapped Nvidia's earnings with a note titled: "As Good as It Gets?" Then, he noted that while near-term demand for the company's AI-chips was strong, "we still believe a decline in demand for Nvidia compute is inevitable as customers begin to scrutinize their [return on investment] on AI compute."

According to Dow Jones Market Data, Nvidia shares ended the month of March down 14.4%. That's the stock's steepest monthly drop since since September 2022, when it fell 19.6%. Nvidia was also the third-worst-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA on Monday.

In 2022, the last time Nvidia shares saw such a sharp monthly drop, the semiconductor industry was experiencing a major global downturn driven by a glut of chip inventories after a boom during the pandemic. That reflected inflation and "overbuying" from some customers in part due to lingering supply-chain problems. Also, just before the big September 2022 drop, Nvidia had warned Wall Street of a $1.4 billion quarterly revenue shortfall due to weak sales for its gaming cards due to an inventory glut and changing crypto sentiment.

2022 ended up being the single worst-performing year for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX in the past decade, losing 35.8%, according to a Nasdaq information sheet.

Nvidia was the most active stock in the S&P 500 SPX on Monday, as shares fell 1.2%.

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