Odds Of 2025 Recession Soar Above 60% On Crypto-Based Polymarket As Tariff Fears Pummel Markets, Bettors Root For Emergency Rate Cut

Benzinga
04-07

The odds of the Federal Reserve implementing an emergency rate cut soared dramatically on the prediction platform Polymarket as stocks and cryptocurrencies tumbled over tariff concerns.

What Happened: Bets in favor of the contract titled "Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?" rose from 20% to 36% over the last 24 hours on the Polygon POL/USD-based platform. As of this writing, the odds had fallen to 28%, but they were still significantly higher than the 16% a week before.

Over $149 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the central bank holds an emergency meeting in between its eight scheduled meetings in a year and lowers the federal funds rate.

Emergency meetings happen during periods of economic crisis. The bank held an emergency meeting in March 2020 in reaction to the risk posed by the COVID-19 pandemic to the U.S. economy. 

See Also: Bitcoin Reeling From Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Shock But These Gold-Backed Coins Are Killing It This Year

Meanwhile, the odds of a recession in 2025 soared to 63%, up from 39% a week ago. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession in the U.S. before Jan. 1, 2026. 

Note that Polymarket is not available to U.S. residents due to regulatory hurdles.

Why It Matters: Stock futures and cryptocurrencies recorded a "Black Sunday" as concerns over President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff measures deepened. Bitcoin BTC/USD, the world's largest cryptocurrency, slipped below $80,000.

Last week, Trump publicly urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. However, the Fed appeared in no rush to move. 

Powell adopted a cautious stance, hinting that slowing economic momentum is not yet enough to ease the Federal Reserve’s inflation concerns.

As of this writing, the Fed's target range remains at 4.25% to 4.50%. 

Image via Shutterstock

Read Next: 

  • OnlyFans Founder’s Startup And HBAR Foundation Enter Race To Acquire Tiktok To Maintain ‘American Ownership And Governance’
$BTCBitcoin
$77945.93-0.61%
Overview
$POLPOL (ex-MATIC)
$0.1664-2.80%
Got Questions? Ask
Which sectors will suffer from rising tariff fears?
How might technology firms adapt to emergency rate cuts?
Which financial stocks are best positioned for a recession?
What cryptocurrencies could rebound if rates are cut?
How will consumer goods react to increased tariffs?
Which industries could benefit from a Fed rate cut?
What investment strategies work during a recession?
How are equities performing amid tariff uncertainty?
Which assets are safe havens during economic downturns?
How will emergency rate cuts impact real estate investments?
Powered By
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10