HP's (NYSE:HPQ) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

Simply Wall St.
04-05

Some HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) shareholders are probably rather concerned to see the share price fall 32% over the last three months. But at least the stock is up over the last five years. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 42%, less than the market return of 95%. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for five years, so spare a thought for those caught in the 41% decline over the last three years: that's a long time to wait for profits.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 19%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, HP achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 7.2% per year. That makes the EPS growth particularly close to the yearly share price growth of 7%. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NYSE:HPQ Earnings Per Share Growth April 5th 2025

Dive deeper into HP's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of HP's earnings, revenue and cash flow .

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for HP the TSR over the last 5 years was 67%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that HP shareholders are down 20% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.9%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 11% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand HP better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for HP (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course HP may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

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