The stock market is having a terrible year so far. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have rattled investors and analysts. There is rising fear that an impending global trade war will lead to a global recession.
Some investors have been booking profits in equities and moving toward "safer investments" such as gold and government bonds. This explains why high-flying stocks such as Dutch Bros (BROS -0.96%) saw a significant pullback in the past few weeks.
The coffee-focused restaurant chain's share prices shot up big time in February following the release of strong quarterly results, clocking gains of more than 60% in just over two months. But Dutch Bros stock is down 37% from the 52-week high it hit on Feb. 18.
This pullback could be an opportunity for savvy investors to add a fast-growing company to their portfolios. Let's look at the reasons why buying Dutch Bros stock right now could turn out to be a smart long-term move.
Dutch Bros ended 2024 with annual revenue up 33% to $1.28 billion. The company also reported an impressive increase of 63% in its bottom line to $0.49 per share. This increase was driven by a combination of healthy growth in its same-store sales and the opening of new stores. Dutch Bros increased its new shop count by 18% last year.
What's more, the company-operated shop contribution margin was up by 150 basis points last year (roughly 35% of stores are owned by franchisees), which explains why its earnings grew at a faster pace than its revenue. An important thing to note here is that Dutch Bros managed to expand its margins despite an increase in coffee prices. The company did this by raising prices and by lowering the capital cost of opening each new shop.
Dutch Bros management points out that last year was its "peak per unit capex," which means that it expects the opening cost of each new shop to come down. This should allow it to mitigate the potential effect of an increase in coffee prices due to newly imposed tariffs from the U.S. and elsewhere. The U.S. announced 46% tariffs on imports from Vietnam and a 32% duty on Indonesian imports. Brazil and Colombia were slapped with 10% import duties.
So, there is a good chance that Dutch Bros will continue to see a hike in coffee prices this year. Even then, management forecasts a 17% jump in its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) this year. Management also expects sales to grow by 22% this year. These numbers are solid, considering the potential effect of higher prices that Dutch Bros will need to pass on to its customers due to a tariff-fueled increase in coffee prices.
This explains why analysts expect a dip in Dutch Bros' earnings growth in 2025. Consensus estimates project a 23% increase in the company's bottom line this year to $0.60 per share. However, its earnings are expected to grow at a faster pace over the next couple of years, as shown in the chart below.
Data by YCharts.
More importantly, Dutch Bros can sustain impressive growth for a much longer period, as it sees a massive opportunity to grow its business in the long run. The company opened its 1,000th shop in February, and it expects to double this count in the next four years. Dutch Bros also sees the potential of opening more than 7,000 shops in the long run.
As such, it won't be surprising to see Dutch Bros become a much bigger company in the long run. That's why investors looking to buy a potential long-term winner right now should take a closer look at this name.
Even though Dutch Bros stock has retreated significantly of late, it continues to trade at a relatively expensive valuation. It's trading at 151 times trailing earnings, and the forward earnings multiple of 83 isn't all that cheap either. However, we have seen that Dutch Bros' earnings growth could accelerate starting next year.
The long-term store opening opportunity is another reason why this company seems built for healthy growth in the long run. All this tells us why it may be a good idea to start accumulating Dutch Bros stock while it is retreating, as the market could reward its accelerating growth with more upside in the future. 14 of the 16 analysts covering Dutch Bros recommend buying the stock, with a median 12-month price target of $82. That would be a 54% jump from current levels. This should give investors another incentive to buy this growth stock, as it seems poised to deliver solid gains in both the short and the long run.
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