Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting April 14.

After a week of huge volatility--with hefty selling in U.S. Treasurys and the U.S. dollar due to President Trump's sweeping trade tariffs and a subsequent 90-day reprieve for many of them--investors will be hoping for a quieter week ahead of a long Easter weekend in many countries. Still, uncertainty over tariffs, worries about U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns about a potentially harsh blow to the economy remain and investors will keep a close eye on further developments.

U.S. retail sales will be watched for signs of how U.S. consumers are reacting to Trump's regime, while interest-rate decisions by the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada will be closely monitored for how central banks are reacting to tariff risks and market moves.

In Asia, focus will center on a hefty bout of economic data out of China, alongside rate decisions in Singapore and South Korea.

U.S.

Among upcoming U.S. economic data, Wednesday's retail sales figures for March will attract attention. Investors will scrutinize how U.S. consumers were reacting to President Trump's policies ahead of the announcement of widespread so-called reciprocal tariffs and the later delay for most additional tariffs except on China.

Retail sales "should be very strong" as consumers made major purchases ahead of the imposition of tariffs, ING economist James Knightley said. "This should be enough to prevent GDP growth from contracting in the first quarter, but we still fear weakness will be renewed in the coming months."

Industrial production for March, also due Wednesday, will give signs of how manufacturers have reacted.

Other data include weekly jobless claims and March housing starts on Thursday. They come amid growing concerns about the damage Trump's tariffs could do to the U.S. economy.

The Treasury will auction $13 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $25 billion in five-year inflation-protected TIPS on Thursday.

CANADA

The Bank of Canada announces a decision on Wednesday and most expect it to keep its key policy rate on hold at 2.75% following seven straight reductions.

However, investors see a growing possibility that the central bank could opt to cut rates again given the threat U.S. tariffs pose to the country's economy.

Still, analysts point to recent solid activity data and inflation ticking higher, which could argue for a pause. Canadian inflation data for March are released on Tuesday and could influence policymakers ahead of the decision. Housing starts data for March are also due Tuesday.

EUROZONE

The European Central Bank's rate-setting meeting on Thursday will be the week's highlight in the eurozone as the data calendar thins ahead of the Easter break, with markets closed Friday and the following Monday.

The ECB is widely expected to cut the deposit rate by another 25 basis points to 2.25% as U.S. tariffs pose risks to growth, despite relief from the announcement of a 90-day pause and bilateral negotiations.

"The inflation picture has improved further from the last meeting with services inflation now displaying a more meaningful decline," said KfW's chief economist Dirk Schumacher in a note. "This, in addition to the rising downside risks to growth, should prepare the ground for another 25 basis point cut of policy rates at the April meeting."

Germany's monthly ZEW economic sentiment indicator and final French CPI data for March are due Tuesday.

Final Italian and EU harmonized CPI data for March are due Wednesday, together with Spanish industrial orders data for February. Germany publishes producer prices data for March on Thursday.

Bond sales will include Germany's auction of 4.5 billion euros in Bobls dated April 2030 on Tuesday and a total of 2.5 billion euros in August 2052- and August 2056-dated Bunds on Wednesday. Finland has an auction on Tuesday, Greece is scheduled to sell bonds Wednesday and France on Thursday.

U.K.

U.K. inflation data for March will be watched closely as the Bank of England considers whether or not to cut interest rates. The tariffs pose risks to a shaky economy, which would argue for a reduction, but there are concerns that they could push already-high inflation ever higher.

"Inflation is still disappointingly high in the U.K. and has retreated only slowly," Investec economist Sandra Horsfield said in a note.

Still, Investec expects a further small easing in inflation in March. Also, given growing concerns about weak global demand alongside recent substantial falls in energy prices, the inflation numbers "may carry less weight" for Bank of England policymakers, Horsfield said.

Data on U.K. unemployment and pay growth are released ahead of this on Tuesday.

Investors will be keeping a close eye on movements in U.K. government bonds, or gilts, after yields were dragged higher amid hefty selling of U.S. Treasurys due to fears over the impact of trade tariffs.

Against this backdrop, the U.K. plans to sell a March 2035-dated gilt on Tuesday.

CHINA

A flood of data releases in China will draw even more attention than usual as economists assess the fallout from the intensifying trade war.

The week kicks off with exports data on Monday, which will be watched for signs of how China's trade is holding up.

That will be followed by economic growth estimates for the first quarter of the year, offering insight into whether the country is on track to meet its annual growth target of around 5%.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal forecast China's gross domestic product grew 5.2% on year. While that would mark a slowdown from the final quarter of 2024, it would suggest that Beijing's annual growth target is on track. Proactive fiscal policy likely helped underpin economic activity, with government bond issuance reaching a record high.

Other data could be mixed. Industrial output growth for March is seen at 5.7% compared with January-February's 5.9%. Growth in retail sales and fixed-asset investments is expected at 4.4% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 4.0% and 4.1%.

House price data for March rounds off the run of releases, with markets watching for signs of life in the beleaguered property sector.

If the latest prints disappoint, that could ramp up urgency for policymakers to unleash more stimulus to mitigate the tariffs hit. Analysts think rate cuts are on the cards and will be watching closely for any moves from Beijing. The PBOC's dollar-yuan fixing will also pull attention as markets wonder if the central bank will devalue the currency to help exporters.

JAPAN

Uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is complicating forecasts for the Bank of Japan's next monetary policy decision. BOJ policy board member Junko Nakagawa might provide fresh insights in a speech to business leaders on Thursday.

Trade data for March, due Thursday, will show whether Japan's exports to the U.S.--which rose in the first two months of 2025 amid pre-tariff demand--continued to hold up. Heavy U.S. tariffs, particularly on cars, could be a significant blow to Japan's fragile economic recovery.

Consumer price data due Friday is expected to show continued inflationary pressure. Consumer prices excluding volatile fresh food likely rose 3.2% in March from a year earlier, up from 3% in February, according to a poll of economists by data provider Quick. Government subsidies likely curbed energy prices, but food inflation has persisted. February machinery orders figures are also due on Wednesday.

The BOJ is scheduled to conduct outright purchases of Japanese government bonds on Wednesday across different parts of the yield curve, including government bonds with maturities longer than 25 years--a move that may support the domestic bond market.

The Ministry of Finance will auction 1 trillion yen of 20-year JGBs on Tuesday, with life insurance companies and pension funds likely to show interest given the attractive yields.

AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND

In Australia, traders will focus on Thursday's release of March employment data, expected to show continued hiring and an unemployment rate holding near historic lows at around 4.1% to 4.2%.

The figures will spark fresh debate over whether the job market remains too tight for the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider cutting rates further at its next policy meeting in late May.

Still, global events dominate the outlook, with market volatility and concerns about the global growth backdrop likely pushing the RBA toward a more dovish stance. RBA Gov. Michele Bullock has said it is too soon to determine if the central bank should react to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and Australia's biggest trading partner, China.

In New Zealand, first-quarter inflation data due Thursday will take center stage. The figures are expected to show subdued price pressures, keeping the door open for further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in the coming months.

For the RBA and the RBNZ, there is growing concern that policy settings remain too restrictive given the increasingly challenging global backdrop.

SINGAPORE

Singapore will release advance first-quarter GDP estimates on Monday, with growth expected to slow to 4.6% on year from 5% in the final quarter of 2024, according to a WSJ survey of five economists. Policymakers have ruled out retaliation against the U.S.'s 10% tariff on Singapore imports but are reassessing downside risks, says Jeff Ng of SMBC. The Ministry of Trade and Industry in February maintained its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 1%-3%.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore will also announce its policy decision the same day, with all 10 economists surveyed expecting the central bank to ease policy settings. Citi Research sees a 65% chance of a 50 basis-point reduction in the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy band, which the MAS uses as a key policy tool rather than interest rates.

Singapore will also release March nonoil domestic exports data, which will be closely watched for signs of weakening trade amid global slowdown risks, due Thursday.

SOUTH KOREA

The Bank of Korea is widely expected to hold its base rate steady at 2.75% on Thursday, though a minority of economists see scope for another cut to support growth.

Twenty out of 25 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect no change, while five forecast a 25 basis-point cut following February's easing move.

Despite rising pressure to loosen policy further, uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and foreign-exchange volatility might keep the BOK on hold for now.

INDIA

India's main data event is an inflation release, coming in the wake of a recent central bank rate cut.

The Reserve Bank of India cited easing inflation as a key reason for its decision to lower borrowing costs, noting that food prices--historically a source of concern--have moderated, boosting policymakers' confidence that inflation will align durably with its target.

Monday's CPI release is likely to show that consumer price inflation edged down slightly in March, Capital Economics' Shilan Shah said. That would further cement the case for more monetary easing, and CE expects headline inflation to hover around the RBI's 4% target over the coming year despite risks from volatile food prices.

Also in focus will be any updates from India's trade talks with the U.S.

While things can shift quickly, India looks relatively well-placed to gain from the U.S. tariff regime, said Shah, deputy chief emerging markets economist at CE. "With China being singled out for punitive tariffs, the incentive for firms to relocate their supply chains becomes more compelling and the case for India is strong given its large labor supply, low costs and stable politics."

Trade data due during the week will be watched to see whether India's trade deficit continued to narrow in March, after shrinking to its lowest level in nearly three years in February.

MALAYSIA

Malaysia will release advance GDP estimates for the first quarter on Friday, with growth likely slowing to 4.8% on year from 5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to forecasts from ANZ and Citi, amid softer consumption and weakening exports.

Citi has trimmed its 2025 GDP forecast for Malaysia to 4.3% from 5% on weaker electronics exports and tariff risks.

Trade data for March, also due Friday, is expected to show a modest rise in the surplus despite likely export and import declines. While key electronics exports to the U.S. are temporarily exempt from tariffs, analysts warn of broader spillover risks.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's April 15-17 state visit may help Malaysia navigate U.S.-China tensions, with the country holding Asean's rotating chair this year, Hong Leong Investment Bank said.

--Any references to days are in local times.

--Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 11, 2025 11:39 ET (15:39 GMT)

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