The Bank of Canada's show starts from 9:45 a.m. ET Wednesday through to about 11:30 a.m. ET, said Scotiabank.

The statement lands at 9:45 a.m. ET along with the Monetary Policy Report that includes forecast ranges and scenarios this time, plus Governor Macklem's opening remarks to his press conference that itself begins at 10:30 a.m. ET. There may also be a technical paper that updates staff estimates of the neutral rate range, which to now has been 2.25-3.25%, noted the bank.

A hold is fairly widely expected, but it's a close call and the BoC loves a good surprise every now and then, stated Scotiabank. Canada's central bank has ended quantitative tightening (QT) and controlled CORRA, so there should be nothing to see other than the policy rate, likely a careful bias, and forecast ranges, plus a probable re-estimation of the neutral policy rate.

The Tuesday timing of the Canadian government's new tariff relief announcements come a day before the BoC raised some eyebrows with some clients, but they won't matter to the BoC based on Scotiabank's rough guesstimates that the impact on Canada's average effective tariff rate would be a rounding error plus uncertain future effects on Canadian tariffs on imported U.S. vehicles.

Particularly hard to estimate, however, is the effect of the auto announcement since the bank needs to monitor pledges from auto companies to keep production in Canada as a condition for tariff relief.

Canada's government is expected to offer more details on the tariff announcements at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, added Scotiabank.