Hedge-fund founder worries about ‘profound’ changes in world’s monetary order

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, speaks onstage during the Wall Street Journal’s 2024 “The Future of Everything Festival” in New York City.

Hedge-fund billionaire Ray Dalio said Sunday that the U.S. is on the brink of a recession — and potentially something much worse.

In an interview with NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” the Bridgewater Associates founder said President Donald Trump’s trade war could trigger a recession.

“I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio told NBC News anchor Kristen Welker. “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”

Dalio described Trump’s tariffs as “so far very disruptive” and that the start if Trump’s policies were “like throwing rocks into the production system.” The impact of those tariffs “would be enormous in terms of the efficiency of the whole world,” he said.

Citing a breakdown of the monetary order and “profound” changes in world order, Dalio said: “If you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power, if you take those factors and look at the factors, that — those changes in the orders, the systems are very, very disruptive. How that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession. Or it could be handled well.”

In a worst-case scenario, Dalio described a breakdown of the value of money, potentially combined with political strife or international conflict. “That could be like the breakdown of the monetary systems of ’71. It could be like 2008. It’s going to be very severe,” he said.

Dalio said that scenario is particularly worrisome because “it doesn’t need to happen.” He said bipartisan deficit reductions and proper use of America’s global negotiating strength could be used “to lay out ways in which bad conflict and inefficient policies don’t create great disruptions but get us through this in an orderly way.”