TSMC 2025Q1 Earnings Conference Call

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is expected to report a jump in profits for the first quarter, but Wall Street will be paying closer attention to any guidance the company provides as the U.S. trade war with China continues.

The Taiwanese chip manufacturer, also called TSMC, is scheduled to report first-quarter financial results before the stock market opens on Thursday. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the company to post first-quarter net income of 348.7 billion New Taiwan dollars (about $10.8 billion), which would be a 55% increase from the year-ago period.

Earlier this month, TSMC gave investors an early glimpse into its quarterly results when it reported revenue of NT$839.3 billion on for January through March.

TSMC is a crucial player in the artificial-intelligence chip market. It’s the main supplier of chips to Nvidia—the leader of semiconductors used for AI applications. And AI demand has been a major part of TSMC’s growth. Revenue for its high-performance computing (HPC) segment, which includes AI chips, jumped58% in the fourth quarterfrom a year earlier.

Despite such growth, American depositary receipts of TSMC have dropped 23% this year as chip companies’ shares succumbed to tariff turmoil.

President Donald Trump has implemented tariffs on countries across the globe, with the highest levies placed on China. Last week, Trump temporarily exempted tech devices, like smartphones and semiconductors, from his so-called reciprocal tariffs. Investor relief was short-lived, though, after the U.S. imposed licensing requirements on some AI semiconductor exports to China this week.

Nvidia said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Tuesday night that future sales of its H20 AI accelerators to China would require a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Chip stocks fell in response to that news on Wednesday.

Following the consistently changing news on tariffs, TSMC investors will want to hear what management has to say about guidance. If TSMC says that AI demand remains a strong growth driver for the company, that could help ease investors’ concerns.

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson noted last week that U.S. policy can impact TSMC, which could see “2025 growth slow beyond initial projections.” He added that “given the fickleness of the Trump administration to date, we don’t understand where U.S. policy goes moving forward.”

Bryson continues to rate TSMC as Outperform with a NT$1,300 price target. It closed at NT$867 on Wednesday. He wrote that innovations in AI “will drive further demand for advanced processors, putting TSMC in a strong position to grow revenues and profits the next few years (and through potential U.S.-related policy disruptions).”