By Connor Hart

Chipotle Mexican Grill is expected to report first-quarter results after the market closes Wednesday. Here is what you need to know.

PROFIT: The burrito chain is expected to post a profit of $377.7 million, or 28 cents a share, according to analysts polled by FactSet. In the same quarter last year, Chipotle reported a profit of $369.3 million, or 26 cents a share.

REVENUE: Analysts modeled sales of $2.94 billion, up from $2.70 billion a year earlier.

SAME-STORE SALES: Comparable sales, which account for store openings and closings, are projected to grow 1.2%, compared with same-store sales growth of 7% in last year's first quarter, according to analysts.

The stock has lost 16% of its value in the past three months and was recently trading at $46.51.

WHAT TO WATCH

--Chipotle has spent the past seven years scouring the Americas and the Caribbean for farms and suppliers that can meet its demand for avocados. The chain, which used roughly 132 million pounds of the large-pitted fruit last year, previously imported about 85% of its avocados from Mexico, leaving the company at the mercy of the weather and cross-border trade dynamics, which have been tested by President Trump's sweeping tariff plans. Investors will be looking for commentary around avocado sourcing and whether or not tariffs could affect guacamole availability or pricing.

--Chipotle has continued to log year-over-year visit growth, with Placer.ai data showing that foot traffic to the chain rose by 4.5% in the first quarter. The company's strength may stem from its continued expansion in smaller markets, the data company said. It additionally attributed the growth to the success of limited-time offers and specials, such as honey chicken. Investors will be looking to see whether Chipotle can continue growing its same-store sales, especially as the broader fast-causual segment struggles.

--Chipotle appears well positioned for resiliency in a pressured spending environment, UBS analysts say in a research note, citing the chain's solid value scores, more affordable price points and exposure to higher income customers. The analysts expect broad macroeconomic headwinds to ding the company's results in the first half of the year, though they forecast an acceleration in the back half of the year, in part thanks to continued menu innovation and increased marketing, which will likely pick up over the summer.

Write to Connor Hart at connor.hart@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 22, 2025 14:02 ET (18:02 GMT)

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