Last week, you might have seen that Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.3% to US$87.57 in the past week. Revenues of US$1.3b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.76, missing estimates by 7.9%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Selective Insurance Group's six analysts is for revenues of US$5.32b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 6.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 97% to US$7.29. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.42 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Selective Insurance Group

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$93.00, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Selective Insurance Group analyst has a price target of US$105 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$85.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Selective Insurance Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Selective Insurance Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Selective Insurance Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Selective Insurance Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Selective Insurance Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.