Unum Group UNM is slated to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 29, after market close. The insurer’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

Unum is expected to register an improvement in its top line and bottom line this time around.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $3.3 billion, indicating 4.1% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.19 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s first-quarter earnings has moved up 1 cent in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 3.3%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

What the Zacks Model Unveils for UNM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UNM this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: UNM has an Earnings ESP of -0.58%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.17 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.19 per share.

Zacks Rank: UNM carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) currently. 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors to Note

Favorable persistency and better sales in the operating segments are likely to have favored premiums in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium income is pegged at $2.7 billion. We expect premium income to be $2.7 billion, suggesting an increase of 5.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Higher miscellaneous investment income and an increase in the level of invested assets are likely to have supported higher net investment income. Our estimate is pegged at $500.5 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $532 million. 

The performance of Unum U.S. and Colonial Life, two of the largest operating segments, is likely to have been driven by higher premium income, favorable persistency, improved benefit experience in the life and accident, sickness, and disability product lines, favorable recoveries in the long-term disability product line and enhanced stop loss experience. 

Better performance in life and group disability is likely to aid Unum US results. 

Our estimate for Unum US operating revenues is pegged at $2 billion, while the same for Colonial Life is $499.6 million.

Unum International likely saw positive impacts from the expansion of its in-force block, favorable recoveries in its group long-term disability product line, higher premium income, improved benefits experience, and increased sales and persistency across both Unum International and Unum UK. Our estimate for Unum International’s operating revenues is pegged at $295.5 million.

Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher policy benefits, commissions, interest and debt expense, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and other expenses. We expect total benefits and expenses to be $2.8 billion.

Continued share buybacks are likely to have provided a boost to the bottom line.

Stocks to Consider

Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

Primerica PRI has an Earnings ESP of +0.46% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.77, indicating a year-over-year increase of 22%. 

PRI’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missing in the other one.

Sun Life Financial SLF has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.22, implying an increase of 9.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

SLF’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters while missing in the other two.

Assurant AIZ has an Earnings ESP of +1.53% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $3.00, implying a decrease of 37.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

AIZ’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Unum Group (UNM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Primerica, Inc. (PRI) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research