It's been a good week for Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 4.6% to US$92.40. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.9b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Northern Trust surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.90 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eleven analysts covering Northern Trust, is for revenues of US$7.87b in 2025. This implies an uncomfortable 8.3% reduction in Northern Trust's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 27% to US$8.05 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$7.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.01 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Northern Trust

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$102, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Northern Trust analyst has a price target of US$128 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$81.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Northern Trust's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Northern Trust is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Northern Trust. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Northern Trust going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Northern Trust (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.