MW Boeing is getting back to 2023, analyst says. Investors can buy the stock again.

By Tomi Kilgore

Bernstein sees Boeing making progress toward achieving the growth that was expected before the Alaska Air door incident in January 2024

Shares of Boeing Co. were rallying toward a fifth straight gain in early Monday trading, after a Bernstein analyst said the aerospace giant is finally getting back to where it was before the blowout of a door plug on an Alaska Air flight changed everything.

Analyst Douglas Harned highlighted some risks to his more upbeat outlook, including "high uncertainty" surrounding the cost of tariffs, which Boeing has estimated at less than $500 million a year. However, he believes that worries about the halt of deliveries to China-based customers isn't as bad as it sounds, because those airplanes can "easily" be sold elsewhere.

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Boeing's stock $(BA)$ surged 2.1% in morning trading, enough to pace the Dow Jones Industrial Average's DJIA gainers. The stock has now run up about 14% over the past five days.

While the stock has advanced 8.6% over the past 12 months - a little better than the S&P 500 index's SPX 8.1% gain over the same time frame - it is still down about 26% since Jan. 4, 2024, just before the Alaska Air incident, while the S&P 500 has rallied about 18% since then.

That incident was the start of a cascade of troubles for Boeing, including regulatory probes, production issues and a labor strike that lasted more than a month.

But Harned now thinks investors can put these troubles behind them. He raised his rating on the stock to outperform, after being at market perform for the past six months.

He also boosted his stock-price target to $218 from $181, with the new target implying about 20% upside from current levels.

"Boeing is now making the progress it needed for the growth trajectory we expected before the Alaska door plug accident in January 2024," Harned wrote in a note to clients.

He pointed to recent comments from Boeing that production of the 737 jet was set to reach 38 planes per month this year, and that guidance for the 787 program, which is projected to increase to seven per month, was above his expectations.

In addition, Boeing's announcement that it has more than $500 billion in backlog orders shows how crucial the company is, he said, given the lack of real competition outside of Europe's Airbus SE $(EADSY)$. Airbus's U.S.-listed stock has climbed 8.1% since the Alaska Air incident.

"All of this is against a backdrop of a duopoly with demand that should outstrip supply through the decade," Harned wrote.

-Tomi Kilgore

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April 28, 2025 11:37 ET (15:37 GMT)

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