BlockBeats News, April 29th. This year, the Bitcoin price narrative has oscillated between "gold" and "Nasdaq" correlations. However, Bernstein analysts believe that the short-term correlation is highly misleading. Key indicators such as retail exhaustion in selling, corporate accumulation trend, and ETF fund inflows are what could potentially drive a "supply squeeze" leading to price reaching new highs.

Last week, Twenty One Capital announced an initial accumulation of 42,000 BTC (about $4 billion), joining the competition among companies like Strategy. Currently, about 80 companies hold a total of 700,000 BTC, accounting for 3.4% of the total supply. The net inflow into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF reached $3 billion last week, hitting a five-month high. The total holdings represent 5.5% of the circulating Bitcoin supply, with institutional ownership increasing from 20% in September last year to 33%. Among these, 48% are held by investment advisors, reflecting asset allocation demands. Combined with corporate holdings, institutional capital now controls 9% of the BTC supply. If the U.S. government implements a strategic reserve, it could trigger a race among sovereign nations to accumulate coins.

The proportion of BTC balances on exchanges has decreased from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13%, but some assets have only been transferred to ETF custodians. Bernstein analysts estimate that Bitcoin will reach a cycle peak of around $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033, with intermittent one-year bear markets during the period. (The Block)