Tesla (TSLA, Financial) is set to hit the road with its robotaxi service in Austin this June, and ARK Invest's research suggests it could scale from zero to roughly 100,000 autonomous vehicles by year-end.

The rollout starts with 10–20 robotic Model Y taxis equipped with Tesla's latest Full Self-Driving software, with about 300 test operators—many now in remote roles—ensuring a smooth launch.

Riders will summon a robotaxi via a dedicated Tesla app, enter their destination, and let the camera-based FSD system handle pickup and drop-off. By end-2026, Elon Musk told investors on the Q1 call that Tesla aims to grow the fleet into the millions, and by year's end ARK's Akaash TK says seeing 100,000 vehicles roam city streets is within reach. Tesla plans to expand the service to other U.S. cities and even let private owners join the network, turning every parked Model S or X into a potential moneymaker.

If Tesla hits its stride, it could rapidly close the gap with Waymo, which currently leads U.S. robotaxi ride counts. Projected growth for Tesla's service hinges on FSD's “unsupervised” version proving reliable after extensive in-car safety-driver and remote-operator testing.

Yet early rides will be under a bright safety spotlight—any hiccup could snag headlines and dent consumer trust. That said, Musk's aggressive timeline and ARK's bull-case numbers underscore Tesla's ambition to redefine ride-hailing and leverage its sprawling EV ecosystem.

Investors should care because robotaxi adoption could unlock a new, high-margin revenue stream beyond vehicle sales and regulatory credits. With the public debut just weeks away on June 1 and Q2 delivery figures due in July, markets will be watching closely for early usage data, safety records and any hints of pricing structure. A smooth launch could reignite TSLA's EV story; a stutter could raise fresh doubts about FSD's readiness to go truly driverless.

Tesla began April trading near $265 and climbed to approximately $285 by April 9. However, a sharp mid-month sell-off dragged the stock down nearly 20% to around $225 by April 19, as profit-taking and broader market jitters hit high-growth names. That trough marked Tesla's lowest level since late March and briefly tested technical support at the 50-day moving average. From there, the stock staged a strong rebound, rallying nearly 30% into month-end to close around $292 on April 30. The late-April recovery not only erased all mid-month losses but also pushed TSLA to fresh five-week highs. Overall, Tesla gained roughly 10% for the month, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's flat showing despite mixed macroeconomic signals.