MARKET WRAPS

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EU GDP; France CPI, GDP, consumer spending; U.K. Nationwide house price index; Germany GDP, unemployment, CPI data for Germany, Bavaria, Saxony, Hesse, North Rhine Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Brandenburg; Italy GDP, CPI; trading updates from GSK, Banco Santander, Barclays, UBS, Caixabank, Credit Agricole, TotalEnergies, Airbus, Haleon, Stellantis, Volkswagen, Prada, Repsol, Mercedes-Benz Group, Smith & Nephew, Aker Solutions, Taylor Wimpey, Equinor, CRH, Glencore, abrdn, Anglo American, Deutsche Post, Iberdrola, DSM-Firmenich, Segro

Opening Call:

European stock futures were tracking slightly lower despite a broadly positive lead from Asian equities. U.S. Treasurys were little changed; the dollar edged higher. Oil futures and gold were lower.

Equities:

European stock futures edged lower early Wednesday ahead of big tech earnings.

Tuesday marked the end of the first 100 days of President Trump's second term, concluding the worst start for stocks of any presidential term in more than half a century.

The extreme volatility in the stock market over the past 100 days might be a healthy wake-up call for investors accustomed to double-digit gains over the past two years, said Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management. "The initial shot always hurts the worst ... but we have had a chance to prepare ourselves for what could be coming [after 100 days]. So in that perspective, I'm a little more encouraged for the days ahead," she added.

U.S. stock indexes turned higher Tuesday after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a CNBC interview that he had reached a trade deal with an unnamed country. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is making progress on trade agreements with India, South Korea, and Japan.

Wednesday's calendar is heavy with corporate earnings from mega-cap companies such as Microsoft and Meta Platforms, and several economic data points in both Europe and the U.S. Economists don't expect the data to provide much insight into the wider economic outlook.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar was a tad higher early Wednesday ahead of several U.S. economic data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of the first quarter GDP. The agency will also release the March measure of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index.

The dollar should continue to be "tossed around" by tariff developments, and any evidence of the damage already done to the U.S. economy is emerging in data, said ING analyst Francesco Pesole. "On balance, the risks are skewed to the downside for the dollar this week," Pesole said.

Bonds:

Supply of new euro corporate and financial bonds is expected to rise in May to around 100 billion euros as issuers make up for low issuance in April, Societe Generale's Yuan Valencia said.

Euro credit supply tends to rise in May and this year is no different, Valencia said, adding that credit supply is likely to average around 25 billion euros per week in May.

Energy:

Oil edged lower early Wednesday. The World Bank on Tuesday said commodity prices are poised to drop sharply this year and next as rising tariffs lead to a slowdown in the global economy.

Some of the largest declines are expected in energy prices, which are seen dropping by 17% this year and 6% in 2026, the World Bank said. Also, China's big three energy companies flagged slower demand for oil products and weaker crude prices in the world's second-largest economy.

Metals:

Gold consolidated in Asia, but may be weighed by signs of easing in the U.S. tariffs' impact.

Gold is constrained in the near term as rapidly changing conditions around global trade risks have tempered momentum, said Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital.

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Copper fell amid USD strength. A stronger dollar is creating headwinds for the commodities markets, ANZ Research analysts said.

A stronger greenback makes it more expensive for international buyers to purchase dollar-denominated commodities like industrial metals. Markets also continue to be weighed down by concerns about the economic backdrop, they said.

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Iron ore prices were lower amid weak sentiment ahead of the Labor Day holiday. ANZ Research noted that Fortescue's iron ore shipments rose 6% in its fiscal 3Q while its peers BHP and Rio Tinto reported lower sales due to disruptions from cyclones. Data shows a modest increase in iron ore inventories at Chinese ports last week, ANZ Research analysts said.

Ahead of the Labor Day holiday, Chinese steel mills have slowed their restocking activities, they said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

China's Export Orders Plunge, Hit by Trump's Trade War

China's economy showed its first big signs of damage from the trade war, as steep U.S. tariffs pummeled export orders and production at the country's factories.

A gauge of new export orders fell in April to its lowest reading since Covid-19 was ravaging the country in 2022, while overall manufacturing activity in China was the weakest in more than a year, according to surveys published Wednesday by China's National Bureau of Statistics.

Trade War Uncertainty Prompts New Wave of Companies to Yank Forecasts

A new wave of major U.S. and European companies, including General Motors, JetBlue, Snap and Volvo, are warning that the trade war's unknowable course and consequences make it futile to forecast future performance.

GM, JetBlue and Volvo all shelved earlier profit guidance for 2025 due to economic uncertainty. The shape-shifting nature of President Trump's automotive duties have clouded the outlook, GM said, while JetBlue predicted that softer demand would plague the airline into the summer. Snapchat parent company Snap said it wouldn't issue guidance like it normally does and warned the social-media platform could suffer from an advertising slump. UPS didn't update its outlook, though it predicted lower shipping volumes and revenue for the second quarter. It also announced 20,000 workers would be laid off.

Trump Cuts Cumulative Tariffs on Some Imported Goods

Tariffs on certain foreign goods imported to the U.S. may be lower than anticipated, thanks to a new directive from the president aimed at limiting the cumulative effect of multiple levies on the same product.

"To the extent these tariffs apply to the same article, these tariffs should not all have a cumulative effect (or "stack" on top of one another) because the rate of duty resulting from such stacking exceeds what is necessary to achieve the intended policy goals," the administration wrote in an executive order signed by President Donald Trump and released Tuesday.

Prudential's New Business Profit Increases by 12%

Prudential PLC said that new business profit rose 12% in the first quarter of the year with growth in China and Asean markets.

The insurance and investment business said Wednesday that annual premium equivalent sales-a key metric for the industry-rose 4%, to $1.677 billion.

Trump Wants Free Passage Through Suez Canal in Exchange for Houthi Bombing Campaign

President Trump is pushing privately and in public for Egypt to compensate the U.S. for its efforts to defend shipping lanes headed to the Suez Canal, putting the struggling country in a difficult political position.

The move echoes efforts by the administration to find financial upsides for its foreign-policy moves in places like Ukraine and Gaza, and follows a multiweek bombing campaign by the U.S. aimed at stopping the Yemen-based Houthi rebels from attacking ships transiting the Red Sea on their way to the vital waterway.

Samsung Net Beats Expectations on Strong Smartphone Sales

Samsung Electronics' first-quarter net profit was stronger than expected, with weak earnings at its core semiconductor business offset by solid gains in its smartphone segment.

The world's largest maker of memory chips and smartphones said Wednesday that its semiconductor earnings fell sequentially for a third straight quarter, reflecting its struggle to catch up with rivals in supplying advanced high-bandwidth-memory products for artificial-intelligence applications.

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Expected Major Events for Wednesday

04:30/NED: Mar PPI

05:00/FIN: Mar Retail sales

05:30/FRA: Mar Household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods

05:30/FRA: 1Q GDP - first estimate

06:00/DEN: Mar Central Government Finance & Debt

06:00/EU: 1Q New Commercial Vehicle Registrations in Europe statistics (EU27 + EFTA3)

06:00/NOR: Mar Credit Indicator C2

06:00/GER: Mar Foreign trade price indices

06:00/DEN: Mar Unemployment

06:00/GER: Mar Retail Trade

06:00/UK: Apr Nationwide House Price Index

06:30/HUN: 1Q Preliminary GDP

06:30/HUN: Mar Preliminary External Trade

06:30/HUN: Mar Trade Balance

06:45/FRA: Mar Housing starts

06:45/FRA: Mar PPI

06:45/FRA: Apr Provisional CPI

07:00/AUT: 1Q Flash Estimate GDP

07:00/SWI: Apr KOF economic barometer

07:00/TUR: Mar Foreign Trade

07:00/CZE: 1Q GDP preliminary estimate

07:30/NED: 1Q GDP - 1st estimate

07:55/GER: Apr Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)

08:00/GER: Apr Bavaria CPI

08:00/GER: Apr North Rhine Westphalia CPI

08:00/GER: Apr Saxony CPI

08:00/GER: Apr Hesse CPI

08:00/GER: Apr Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI

08:00/GER: Apr Brandenburg CPI

08:00/BUL: Mar PPI

08:00/ITA: 1Q GDP preliminary estimate

08:00/GER: 1Q GDP - 1st release

09:00/GRE: Mar PPI

09:00/GRE: Feb Turnover Index in Retail Trade

09:00/MLT: Mar PPI

09:00/CYP: Mar PPI

09:00/CRO: Mar Industrial Production Volume Index

09:00/LUX: Mar PPI

09:00/EU: 1Q Preliminary Flash Estimate GDP

09:00/CRO: Mar Retail trade

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April 30, 2025 00:01 ET (04:01 GMT)

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