By Callum Keown

The odds are stacked against JetBlue Airways ahead of the low-cost carrier's earnings before the open Tuesday. More turbulence ahead may be the only certainty for investors right now.

When the stock market moves due to tariff developments, JetBlue stock tends to feel it more than most. For example, the shares plunged 17% the day after April 2, when President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called reciprocal tariffs and then surged 19% on April 9, when those country-specific taxes were paused for 90 days.

Unsurprisingly, the shares have been crushed this year -- falling 48% so far in 2025.

It's difficult to see how the carrier's earnings could turn that around. Peers have all reported a slowdown in domestic demand, along with strength in international and premium travel. While JetBlue has been expanding its international presence, it is heavily exposed to the U.S. market.

On top of that, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and Alaska Air all withdrew their full-year financial guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty. JetBlue may follow a similar path.

Expectations are fairly low. Analysts see the airline reporting a loss of 63 cents per share on sales of $2.14 billion in the first quarter. Wall Street is looking for full-year guidance of a $1.22 per share loss.

But the stock's recent weakness may work in its favor. Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform after a sharp selloff at the start of the month. The shares tumbled 22% to $3.94 from $5.04 in the two days after April 2.

The stock has bounced around with the broader market since but remains at a similar level -- $4.07 after a 4.9% gain on Monday -- heading into earnings. Syth thinks the shares can climb back to $5 and said the carrier's assets make it an attractive acquisition target. However, she added that an earnings miss due to the volatile macroeconomic environment was a risk for the stock.

Just 6% of analysts covering JetBlue rate the shares Buy but Wall Street's average target price suggests the stock can jump 13% from current levels.

The earnings may not help the stock much but progress on trade talks between the U.S. and China or other major trading partners would.

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com

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April 28, 2025 16:45 ET (20:45 GMT)

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